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Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2

Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2
Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:
From the first half of the news trading note we learned some ways to estimate what is priced in by the market. We learned that we are trading any gap in market expectations rather than the result itself. A good result when the market expected a fantastic result is disappointing! We also looked at second order thinking. After all that, I hope the reaction of prices to events is starting to make more sense to you.

Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.

Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases

Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases

The majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.

A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.

Helpful context
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.

Data surprise index

The other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.

Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.

Using recent events to predict future reactions

The market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
  • Many times the market will shrug and ignore it.
  • But when the economic recovery is predicated on a strong consumer it may move markets a lot.
Or consider the S&P index of US stocks (Wall Street).
  • If you get good economic data that beats analyst estimates surely it should go up? Well, sometimes that is certainly the case.
  • But good economic data might result in the US Central Bank raising interest rates. Raising interest rates will generally make the stock market go down!
So better than expected data could make the S&P go up (“the economy is great”) or down (“the Fed is more likely to raise rates”). It depends. The market can interpret the same data totally differently at different times.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?

2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact

A final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.

Trimming or taking off positions

One thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.

The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.

Two kinds of reversals

Fairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.

Logical reversals

Sometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.

Crazy reversals


Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.

Some key releases

As we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.

Interest rates decisions

These can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event

Non farm payrolls

These are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
  • The headline number of jobs created (bigger is better)
  • The unemployment rate (smaller is better)
  • Average hourly earnings (depends)
Bear in mind these headline numbers are often off by around 75,000. If a report comes in +/- 25,000 of the forecast, that is probably a non event.
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.

Surveys

There are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.

GDP

Gross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.

Inflation

Countries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.

Industrial data

Things like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.

Comments

Often there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.

submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Trading in Kenya.

Someone posted on here a few days ago asking about forex and forex trading in Kenya, I have gone through the responses and clearly, most people don’t have an idea. It is 3am in the morning and am in a good mood so let me make this post. This will be a comprehensive and lengthy post so grab a pen and paper and sit down. We’ll be here a while.
FIRST OF ALL, who am I..?
I am a forex trader, in Nairobi, Kenya..i have been actively involved in forex since I found out about it in Feb 2016 when I somehow ended up in a wealth creation seminar (lol) in pride inn Westlands, the one close to Mpaka Rd. Luckily for me, it was not one of those AIM global meetings or I’d be on Facebook selling God knows what those guys sell. I did not take it seriously till August of the same year and I have been active ever since.
I don’t teach, mentor or sell a course or signals, I trade my own money. I am also posting from a throwaway account because I don’t want KRA on my ass.
What the fuck is forex and forex trading.
In simple plain English, forex is like the stock market but for currencies. Stock Market = Shares, forex = currencies. If you want more in-depth explanation, google is your friend.
These currencies are pegged on specific countries, united states- dollar, UK- pound, euro zone- euro, Switzerland- Swiss franc, Kenya- Kenya shilling.. you get the point. Now, there are specific events and happenings between these economies that affect the movement and values of the currencies, driving their value (purchasing power up and down). Forex trading exploits these movements to make money. When the value is going up, we buy and vice versa (down –sell)
Is forex trading illegal in Kenya? Is it a scam?
Illegal, no. scam, no. All the banks in the world do it (KCB made about 4 billion from trading forex in 2019)
Have there been scams involving forex in Kenya?
Yes. Here is one that happened recently. This one is the most infamous one yet. Best believe that this is not the end of these type of scams because the stupidity, greed and gullibility of human beings is unfathomable.
However, by the end of this post, I hope you won’t fall for such silliness.
What next how do I make it work..?
Am glad you asked. Generally, there are two ways to go about it. One, you teach yourself. This is the equivalent of stealing our dad’s car and hoping that the pedal you hit is the brake and not the accelerator. It is the route I took, it is the most rewarding and a huge ego boost when you finally make it on your own. Typically, this involves scouring the internet for hours upon hours going down rabbit holes, thinking you have made it telling all your friends how you will be a millionaire then losing all your money. Some people do not have the stomach for that.
The second route is more practical, structured and smarter.
First Learn the basics. There is a free online forex course at www.babypips.com/learn/forex this is merely an introductory course. Basically it is learning the parts of a car before they let you inside the car.
Second, start building your strategy. By the time you are done with the babypips, you will have a feel of what the forex market is, what interests you, etc. Tip..Babypips has a lot of garbage. It is good for introductory purposes but not good for much else, pick whatever stick to you or jumps at you the first time. Nonsense like indicators should be ignored.
The next step is now the most important. Developing the skill and building your strategy. As a beginner, you want to exhaust your naivety before jumping into the more advanced stuff. Eg can you identify a trend, what is a pair, what is position sizing, what is metatrader 4 and how to operate it, what news is good for a currency, when can I trade, what are the different trading sessions, what is technical analysis, what is market sentiment, what are bullish conditions what is emotion management, how does my psychology affect my trading (more on this later) an I a swing, scalper or day trader etc
Mentors and forex courses.. you have probably seen people advertising how they can teach and mentor you on how to trade forex and charging so much money for it. Somehow it seems that these people are focused on the teaching than the trading. Weird, right..? Truth is trading is hard, teaching not quite. A common saying in the industry is “Those who can’t trade, teach” you want to avoid all these gurus on Facebook and Instagram, some are legit but most are not. Sifting the wheat from the chaff is hard but I did that for you. The info is available online on YouTube, telegram channels etc. am not saying not to spend money on a course, if you find a mentor whose style resonates with you and the course is reasonably priced, please, go ahead and buy..it will cut your learning curve in half. People are different. What worked for me might not work for you.
Here are some nice YouTube channels to watch. These guys are legit..
  1. Sam sieden
  2. Cuebanks
  3. TheCoinFx
  4. The trading channel
  5. Astro
  6. Forex family
  7. Wicksdontlie
Advanced stuff
  1. ICT
After a short period of time, you will be able to sniff out bs teachers with relative ease. You will also discover some of your own and expand the list. Two tips, start with the oldest videos first and whichever of these resonates with you, stick with till the wheels fall off.
How long will it take until things start making sense
Give yourself time to grow and learn. This is all new to you and you are allowed to make mistakes, to fail and discover yourself. Realistically, depending on the effort you put in, you will not start seeing results until after 6 months. Could take longeshorter so there is no guarantee.
Social media, Mentality, Psychology and Books
Online, forex trading might not have the best reputation online because it takes hard work and scammers and gurus give it a bad name. However, try to not get sucked into the Instagram trader lifestyle as it is nowhere close to what the reality is. You will not make millions tomorrow or the day after, you might never even make it in this market. But that is the reality of life. Nothing is promised, nothing is guaranteed.
Your mentality, beliefs and ego will be challenged in this market. You will learn things that will make you blood boil, you will ask yourself daily, how is this possible, why don’t they teach this in school..bla bla bla..it will be hard but growth is painful, if it wasn’t we’d all be billionaires. Take a break, take a walk, drink a glass of whatever you like or roll one..detox. Chill with your girl (or man) Gradually you will develop mental toughness that will set you up for life. Personally, I sorta ditched religion and picked up stoicism. Whatever works for you.
Psychology, this is unfortunately one of the most neglected aspects of your personal development in this journey. Do you believe in yourself? Can you stand by your convictions when everyone is against you? Can you get up every day uncertain of the future? There will be moments where you will question yourself, am I even doing the right thing? the right way? It is normal and essential for your growth. People who played competitive sports have a natural advantage here. Remember the game is first won in your head then on the pitch.
Books: ironically, books that helped me the most were the mindset books, Think and grow rich, trading for a living, 4 hour work week, the monk who sold his Ferrari..just google mindset and psychology books, most trading books are garbage. Watch and listen to people who have made it in the investing business. Ray Dalio, warren, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn.
This is turning out to be lengthier than I anticipated so I’ll try to be brief for the remaining parts.
Brokers
You will need to open up an account with a broker. Get a broker who is regulated. Australian ones (IC Market and Pepperstone) are both legit, reliable and regulated. Do your research. I’d avoid local ones because I’ve heard stories of wide spreads and liquidity problems. International brokers have never failed me. There are plenty brokers, there is no one size fits all recommendation. If it ain’t broke..don’t fix it.
Money transfer.
All brokers accept wire transfers, you might need to call your bank to authorize that, avoid Equity bank. Stanchart and Stanbic are alright. Large withdrawals $10k+ you will have to call them prior. Get Skrill and Neteller if you don’t like banks like me, set up a Bitcoin wallet for faster withdrawals, (Payoneer and Paypal are accepted by some brokers, just check with them.)
How much money can I make..?
I hate this question because people have perceived ceilings of income in their minds, eg 1 million ksh is too much to make per month or 10,000ksh is too little. Instead, work backwards. What % return did I make this month/ on this trade. Safaricom made 19.5% last year, if you make 20% you have outperformed them. If you reach of consistency where you can make x% per month on whatever money you have, then there are no limits to how much you can make.
How much money do I need to start with..?
Zero. You have all the resources above, go forth. There are brokers who provide free bonuses and withdraw-able profits. However, to make a fulltime income you will need some serious cash. Generally, 50,000 kes. You can start lower or higher but if you need say 20k to live comfortably and that is a 10% return per month, then you can do the math on how big your account should be. Of course things like compound interest come into play but that is dependent on your skill level. I have seen people do spectacular things with very little funds.
Taxes..?
Talk to a lawyer or an accountant. I am neither.
Family? Friends?
Unfortunately, people will not understand why you spend hundreds of hours watching strangers on the internet so it is best to keep it from them. Eventually you will make it work and they will come to your corner talking about how they always knew you’d make it.
The journey will be lonely, make some trading buddies along the way. You’d be surprised at how easy it is when people are united by their circumstances (and stupidity) I have guys who are my bros from South Africa and Lebanon who I have never met but we came up together and are now homies. Join forums, ask questions and grow. That is the only way to learn. Ideally, a group of 5-10 friends committed to learning and growth is the best model. Pushing each other to grow and discovering together.
Forex is real and you can do amazing things with it. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you want a quick guaranteed income, get a job.
And now it is 5am, fuck.
This is oversimplified and leaves out many many aspects.
Happy to answer any questions.
submitted by ChaliFlaniwaNairobi to Kenya [link] [comments]

Is this a strategy?

I just started out in FX this week after a 25% loss of my portfolio with stock options. I'm trying out forex and built out a strategy that relies on the Ichimoku clouds and I trade only for couple of minutes. So far I've recovered 5% of my loss but I might just have been lucky. I usually trade on EUR.USD.
My strategy so far goes like this. I follow the minute chart, enter a trade once a trend had been set (ie, price above or bellow the cloud), if the price changes trend on the minute chart by going bellow/above the cloud I close and take the loss, if the price continues to go in my direction I hold until I'm happy with the profit or nears a price resistance.
The disadvantages I see, it's slow, no big profits unless there's news and if there's big volatility I might endup going on loss. What I like about the strategy is that it makes me responsible, it enforces a stop loss for me that is not just based on gut feeling, also if a trend becomes strong, my stop goes higher and higher, thus securing profit.
What you guys think about it? is it stupid? is there a way to improve it?
submitted by CGeorges89 to Forex [link] [comments]

I ruined my career as a music artist. The years are passing by and the amount of regret and guilt are eating me alive.

Hello everyone.
First of all thank you for reading this and giving attention to my story I'm about to share. I want to mention this is a throwaway account because I feel shy talking about this subject. It is something personal to me.
To give you some quick background information about what's going on: - I'm currently 27 years old while my "career" has ended 7 years ago. In all this time in between, I've had the desire to achieve something similar but so far without the success I had imagined.

Here we go...
  1. When I was 12 years old, I had the desire to become an artist (a DJ/Electronic music artist). I had tons of ambition and motivation and had set my goal for life. From that point in my life I kept pursuing it and put in the hard work to achieve it. It was literally the thing that kept me awake at night. I imagined and visualized my dream of standing on a stage in front of 10k people and playing my own music. I visualized one of my idols supporting me and my music. That was the person I looked up to, the guy who sparkled my fire and inspired me to achieve something similar.
  2. Years went by where I got laughed at on every online forum possible. My music sucked, I was too confident about my thing and people basically told me it was pure shit haha. Yet it did not stop me from pursuing my dream. I was the little kid amongst older guys being better at this music production thing. It was fun to be honest. After 3 or 4 years, when I was around 16 my music got noticed by someone bigger than myself. My music started to get noticed by local clubs and "famous" DJ's. They started playing it every single week in clubs and reached out to me. That's where it all began. Somebody I looked up to emailed me and wanted to make a song together. That's what opened many doors for me. Eventually, it led to releasing (and distributing) a real song under my name and having more support and plays as I wished for.
  3. After a few more musical releases, I got approached again. This time by one of the biggest artists within this scene. I had the luck this scene was very local and everything happened in my country. So we met up. I was a shy little kid who took the train to cross the country to meet one of my idols. This was a big day. I felt like the luckiest and happiest kid alive. A dream coming true. My dream of being a star and realizing my goals didn't seem far away.
  4. Things went well from this point. It took some time but eventually near the time I graduated I was ready and settled to make this my business and job. I was happy, around 18 years old. And I was playing shows around the globe and earning a nice amount of money per booking. The fans and "likes" kept coming in and it seemed like I established some sort of fanbase. This was the life I imagined. My goal seemed reached and I was happy.
  5. As I grew older I started to become a bit more pessimistic or perfectionistic.. or both. There are a lot of fake things going on in the music business and I was not the type of artist who likes to play along with that. I felt real. I spoke real (to my fans, on my social media pages, etc), and I acted that way. I want to mention that at this same period of my life, my family was putting some sort of pressure on me that I should find a part-time job for some extra income. Since I didn't play shows every week, I didn't generate a stable income doing music alone. Yet this was the goal, and this was perfectly possible as almost everyone in my crew was making a living from this. I want to mention that "my crew" was my record label / booking agency where I was part of. I kept believing that this was possible but due the pressure and stress my family gave me I think I started to doubt myself at some point. Although I was living my dream and touring the world, my family didn't push or believe it enough so they would suggest me to find a parttime job. I hated that. Every time they brought that up it made me annoyed because I just wanted to focus on my career and because I knew I could pull this off.
  6. My career was still in a good line at that time. It was also the time I was smoking cannabis. I became an addict. It was something I did on a daily basis and I think it had a negative impact on my behavior and work ethic to produce music. It also had an impact on my social media posts and thoughts about the music industry.
  7. Eventually, everything let to the point where I made a social media post which my label and booking agency didn't like, at all. It was so "off-track" for them that they decided to cancel some of my bookings for that upcoming summer. My post was about justice, and I shared some of my thoughts on the "fake" aspect of this music business because it made me extremely annoyed how people could achieve the same things putting in less work than I did (friends, connections, money..). As my label and booking agency supported those fake activities as well, they were kind of pissed that I shared those honest words in front of my fans online.
  8. Since I was a honest person, stubborn, and perfectionistic, I was like "fuck this" and basically never made contact again with them. Eventually this led to my last booking and then my career died. To this day (7 years later), I still get spotify plays from those old songs, and I still get messages every now and then of people asking what happened and why I stopped making this music.
  9. I would like to mention that my interest for that specific genre was fading away near the time I made that post on my social media. Don't get me wrong, obviously, I would've loved to keep doing it as my job. But personally it just wasn't touching me that much anymore as there were other genres that started to appeal to me more.

Here is an important thing I remember telling my dad at the age of 20, after destroying my career and right before starting some labour work which I absolutely hated. "Dad, I'm going to do this job maximum 3 months before I'm off on another musical adventure in another style!".
So far 7 years have passed hopping jobs and not saving a lot of money. It's only been 2 years I finally been able to quit smoking cannabis. I have made tons of songs in all those years, and removed tons of songs completely from my computer because I hate them at some point and I get angry because of everything.
I get a few plays a month on Spotify with my new musical project but it never really took off. I decided to abandon my previous name and start from scratch because I didn't want any connection to my older project. The closest I got to achieving something big was another famous artist reaching out because he liked one of my songs, but eventually it led to nothing (unfortunately).
I have not played a single show as my new project and haven't got close to being successful or making this my job, at all.
As the years are passing by and I'm slowly starting to realize I'm no longer the "golden boy" (aka the little 13 year old kid with big dreams) it starts to eat me and devastate me mentally. It's a big part of my life and the dream is still alive but it feels like the fire or belief that I will get there is slowly fading away.
There have barely been days that I did not make music but no matter how much I produce or whatever genre or style I try, it doesn't seem to take off.
At this point, and for the last year, or 2-3 years, it has become worse.. I highly doubt every step I take and I feel like I cannot make any decision at all for my musical path anymore. I changed my artist name multiple times and even while writing this post I still think the name isn't good enough and I should start another project from scratch. I basically like a lot of genres and I can't seem to make a choice on what I really wanna go after. The musical world has exploded so much with social media and everything right after my career died and there just seems to be too much choice and things going on. I cannot seem to find the right path and I can't find my fire and ambition like I had when I was younger.
Every now and then I still look back at my musical colleagues which I abandoned 7 years ago and see what they are up to, what the music sounds like and how successful they are right now. It makes me feel worse but some part of me likes looking at it and imagined what I could've become. The fact of seeing them so successful right now and still doing their dream job just makes me even more sad realizing its been 7 years and I'm still living at home, hopping jobs and thinking how to take off on another musical path.
Last year I have met the most amazing girlfriend in the world, and in the meantime I found some other hobbies that I'm passionate about such as trading in forex and doing visuals. But I feel like it will never replace music since that's like my main-quest in life.
If I think about it, being able to do shows again and make an income being a music artist would make me the happiest person alive but there's no way I'm going back to my older project and certainly no way I'm going to knock on the door of my label and say 'Whatsup' after 7 years.
Without a doubt, my behavior and stubbornness led to the most stupid choice I ever made in my life.

Thanks for reading along. I might delete this post later because I feel like I shared too much personal stuff and it makes me insecure. Although I want to admit it felt good writing all of this.
Peace.
submitted by Top-Rub8826 to askatherapist [link] [comments]

There is such thing as stupid questions

Newbies, Before you get on here asking the same questions we see everyday do us all a favor and do some reading yourself, even if its on Reddit. Just look through before asking the same stuff over and over again. Hopefully I can clear this up for you. NO You can not get rich overnight on Forex. No not even in a year.. Are there cases? Yes, you dont want to be one of them. These people who have done this have never lived a more stress full life and were probably seconds away from making bad life decision along the way. It is NOT easy. Its the hardest fucking thing I've done in my life, but I love it and I love reading about it every single day. Do NOT let the money drive you bros and bras. You must be in it for the knowledge. I do believe there are stupid questions and Im gonna start giving stupid answers. Don't mean to offend anyone, just a little reality check for you new guys.
submitted by migijc123 to Forex [link] [comments]

The Daily Autist, By An Autist, For Autists. 03/24/20

The Daily Autist

03/24/20

Hot Off The Spectrum

TLDR of the News to Inform Your Moves (Monday was a lot. Even my post is long)

What’s up sluts. I’m back with another burst of autism. I’ve been Rick fuggin Rollin in the tendies (AKA not hemorrhaging money) and these posts have been fairly accurate. I’ll be adding plays to the NostraLosses section as a result to bring more clarity to my dumbass takes.
FIRST THINGS FUCKING FIRST THE ORIGINAL AUTIST ARTIST WHO DREW THE OLD LOGO HAS COME TO LIGHT IM SO FUCKING HAPPY. We’ll never get it back, but sometimes closure on it’s own feels good enough. What am I a fucking teenager? The rest of the sub was shit yesterday/this morning.I was shadowbanned for posting “Fear mongering Corona Content,” and yet 75% of the sub’s hot posts are exactly that but with even less info than I had. Rest is memes. No plays or info. Honestly kinda sad.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fnpz20/hey_yall_i_drew_the_original_baby_ama/
Obligatory Corona Dump (Monday news could not stop throating COVID content)
Things are in such a Twilight Zone State Amazon is getting credit for being “altruistic,” like they didn’t hike up prices since late January themselves and only altered their practices once Trump threatened Defense Production Act (DPA) notice they’re also only suspending, so once things are just slightly back to normal please price gouge errthang.
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3076638/amazon-suspends-almost-4000-seller-accounts-unfairly-priced-products
Costco is also getting unwarranted credit. They won’t take back your tower of toilet paper or tub of hand sanitizer, which COSTS them money they already made. Did they have any problem hiking the price, refusing to limit sales per person, not give their employees PPE, or donate any relief from their excess food products due to banning eating at the location and numbers going down? Nah? ok. So the good guy is the company that profited off of fear and won’t provide the minimum financial relief to those who thought it was that extreme. Stop demonizing your fellow worker citizens.
https://brobible.com/culture/article/costco-toilet-paper-returns-hoarders/
Companies getting high praise and both articles implying a return to normalcy soon. How does that affect the markets? Normies are being told everything is okay and they will follow suit. Is everything okay? Absolutely not. These MFs in charge just announced unlimited QE yesterday nothing’s okay financially. Retard normie pump coming in.
Financial News:
Trump is saying that unless 10,000 die in the streets soon he’s gonna “re-open” the economy after the 15 days. At this point it’s a bit of a walking Onion article. Thursday?” ITS A WAR WE WILL CAPTURE AND KNIFE COVID’S ASSHOLE”. Friday? “This is serious. I do not want to use any drastic measures but I will. This is very verry serious.” Monday? “Isn’t being stuck inside fucking wack? Let’s open the pit up bro” I recommend watching the video with subtitles to get a transcript of his speech patterns.
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/america-will-again-and-soon-be-open-for-id701434357?chan=9qsux198
I predicted the Fed couldn’t devalue the dollar as fast as other countries could want it and it seems to be holding up. A very small dip from the news they’re willing to print unlimited moneys? The global economy is in trouble if that's still the stability bearer. Puts are lookin good, but they need to be farther out. 04/17 soonest for my comfort. Especially with the temporary re-open of the US economy. Seeing Reuters use “money bazooka,’ multiple times in the last week has been fantastic.
https://www.reuters.com/article/global-forex/forex-dollar-slips-as-feds-money-bazooka-raises-hopes-of-easier-cash-supply-idUSL4N2BH2AF
Italy’s debt, tax, and unemployment relief are all being held up by congressional disputes and an ability to only handle a tenth of the paperwork that comes in. Sound familiar? Maybe ominous? The population density in regions of Italy is our closest analog to how a free (eat my dick South Korea) country is gonna get hit. Their healthcare system is also tainted by for-profit companies and insurance so it’s also pretty similar medical coverage wise per capita.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-banks-insight/banks-struggle-to-ride-to-the-rescue-in-europes-cash-crunch-battle-idUSKBN21B0OE
United Airlines is threatening to fire workers if they don’t get a bailout. I hope to fuck this is the tipping point and the government forces United to hand over their payroll list so the gov. Provide financial relief to their employees while United liquidates their assets or sells to some Saudi Conglomerate. Effect on market? PUTS ON UNITED BITCH THEY GOIN OUT
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/20/819401028/united-airlines-threatens-to-cut-jobs-if-coronavirus-aid-package-isnt-passed (From 03/20 but was drowned out by other news. Looks more and more likely airlines won’t be bailed out)
Everyday Fox business posts something for Boomers to buy more Ford or Dine stocks (idk what old people buy) and today they have some good ammo. Overnight futures were up. Pre-market today as of 06:31 EST is $234.72 after touching 238. Looks like today is going to be the bull trap day as the rumors of stimulus are hot again. If it gets passed I expect a 245-248 top before the unemployment numbers Thursday fist everyone. Market effect? Short term calls as everyone gets high on optimism and long term puts for when they come down.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-futures-gain-ground-as-congress-moves-closer-to-a-stimulus-deal
Crypto is taking off after tanking yesterday. Overnight rally (NZ markets followed by Asian markets) carried it up 14% in the last 16 hours. It started to rise slowly after the QE announcement but really flew overnight and this morning. Cooling off now but already had a dip to 6650 and right back up to 6700+ While not always correlated, crypto is a key indicator right now in speculative confidence while people are budgeting for maintaining their lives versus increasing their future wealth. No link because every crypto site is owned by a Ponzi schemer. Fight me and my tinfoil fucking hat. Here are some squigglies and bars
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITBAY
My NostraLosses Prediction? The rumors of stimulus and the passed unlimited QE will provide market optimism today and tomorrow. Thursday’s unemployment numbers is the next scheduled big news so I wouldn’t get any short term puts unless scalping. If anything unexpected news could bring the market even higher with it being random good news versus any random catastrophic news. Market open will be up about 6% from the previous day’s close, so I expect a short term dip at open which would be a good spot to get quick calls to then ride the pump. Market closes above 235 and if stimulus passes along with more false optimism statements by Trump there’s possibly a sharp bull run to 245-248 by end of Wednesday.
Plays to follow:
SPY: 240c 03/27 once the first dip of day happens. If your bankroll allows for a few days farther out I would go for it. If SPY does hit 240, SELL call and BUY put for 228 04/01 at soonest.
DIA: 190P 04/17 It hasn’t fallen nearly as hard as it should (another 5% imo) and the industries making it up are going to have numbers showing how bad the payroll cuts and profit loss has been. During today’s pump get some not so fucking expensive puts (made sure not to say cheap)
Any Stupid Tech Company: Retarded OTM call for 03/27 or later. With so many people being stuck at home the last week or so the tech companies are outperforming the market with the idea that: The high user rate means more $$$, but if there’s more people on because they are not working or laid off, how do they have the money to buy shitty sponsored products on their feed? The kicker here is ads have always had near useless efficacy rates on social media so the fact they will continue to do a shit job might not change much. Anyway people are fucking dumb and tech gonna continue to rally this week. Signed, someone with 1.5k in TWTR Puts expiring over next 4 weeks.
Most people don’t even give you one play. I’m giving you multiple ways to lose your money.
TLDR of my TLDR: Companies who profited off the crisis getting karma points for no reason. Normies think the crisis will be over next Friday. International currencies are still erratic but the markets are rallying today globally (sign of lacking underlying stability for said rally). Italy can’t pass anything or handle the paperwork from their previously set up process (AKA USA in 7-10 days under current stimulus proposals) and they don’t have a solution in sight. Stimulus has everyone rock hard for calls again, ride the short term rise and pick up puts while you’re up there. Just be a long term gay bear experimenting with bulls depending on the day.
Results on my thoughts from last post 03/23: I was incorrect on circuit breaker open but was only 1% away and it did run up mid-day as called. So if you sold at 218 to buy calls to sell a few hours later, we nailed it boys. If you were aiming for price instead of time, it never hit 234 again which was a key test and you’re likely sitting on a fat red option right now. I was about half right which is all you need to be. I’ve also switched up Market affect and effect because I’m retarded and am unsure which is right anymore. Nvm grammarly fixed it.
And again, I mean this sincerely,

submitted by AvocadosAreMeh to wallstreetbets2 [link] [comments]

I ruined my career as a music artist. The years are passing by and the amount of regret and guilt are eating me alive.

Hello everyone.
First of all thank you for reading this and giving attention to my story I'm about to share.I want to mention this is a throwaway account because I feel shy talking about this subject. It is something personal to me.
To give you some quick background information about what's going on:- I'm currently 27 years old while my "career" has ended 7 years ago. In all this time in between, I've had the desire to achieve something similar but so far without the success I had imagined.
Here we go...
  1. When I was 12 years old, I had the desire to become an artist (a DJ/Electronic music artist). I had tons of ambition and motivation and had set my goal for life.From that point in my life I kept pursuing it and put in the hard work to achieve it. It was literally the thing that kept me awake at night. I imagined and visualized my dream of standing on a stage in front of 10k people and playing my own music. I visualized one of my idols supporting me and my music. That was the person I looked up to, the guy who sparkled my fire and inspired me to achieve something similar.
  2. Years went by where I got laughed at on every online forum possible. My music sucked, I was too confident about my thing and people basically told me it was pure shit haha. Yet it did not stop me from pursuing my dream. I was the little kid amongst older guys being better at this music production thing. It was fun to be honest. After 3 or 4 years, when I was around 16 my music got noticed by someone bigger than myself. My music started to get noticed by local clubs and "famous" DJ's. They started playing it every single week in clubs and reached out to me. That's where it all began. Somebody I looked up to emailed me and wanted to make a song together. That's what opened many doors for me. Eventually, it led to releasing (and distributing) a real song under my name and having more support and plays as I wished for.
  3. After a few more musical releases, I got approached again. This time by one of the biggest artists within this scene. I had the luck this scene was very local and everything happened in my country. So we met up. I was a shy little kid who took the train to cross the country to meet one of my idols. This was a big day. I felt like the luckiest and happiest kid alive. A dream coming true. My dream of being a star and realizing my goals didn't seem far away.
  4. Things went well from this point. It took some time but eventually near the time I graduated I was ready and settled to make this my business and job. I was happy, around 18 years old. And I was playing shows around the globe and earning a nice amount of money per booking. The fans and "likes" kept coming in and it seemed like I established some sort of fanbase. This was the life I imagined. My goal seemed reached and I was happy.
  5. As I grew older I started to become a bit more pessimistic or perfectionistic.. or both. There are a lot of fake things going on in the music business and I was not the type of artist who likes to play along with that. I felt real. I spoke real (to my fans, on my social media pages, etc), and I acted that way. I want to mention that at this same period of my life, my family was putting some sort of pressure on me that I should find a part-time job for some extra income. Since I didn't play shows every week, I didn't generate a stable income doing music alone. Yet this was the goal, and this was perfectly possible as almost everyone in my crew was making a living from this. I want to mention that "my crew" was my record label / booking agency where I was part of. I kept believing that this was possible but due the pressure and stress my family gave me I think I started to doubt myself at some point. Although I was living my dream and touring the world, my family didn't push or believe it enough so they would suggest me to find a parttime job. I hated that. Every time they brought that up it made me annoyed because I just wanted to focus on my career and because I knew I could pull this off.
  6. My career was still in a good line at that time. It was also the time I was smoking cannabis. I became an addict. It was something I did on a daily basis and I think it had a negative impact on my behavior and work ethic to produce music. It also had an impact on my social media posts and thoughts about the music industry.
  7. Eventually, everything let to the point where I made a social media post which my label and booking agency didn't like, at all. It was so "off-track" for them that they decided to cancel some of my bookings for that upcoming summer. My post was about justice, and I shared some of my thoughts on the "fake" aspect of this music business because it made me extremely annoyed how people could achieve the same things putting in less work than I did (friends, connections, money..). As my label and booking agency supported those fake activities as well, they were kind of pissed that I shared those honest words in front of my fans online.
  8. Since I was a honest person, stubborn, and perfectionistic, I was like "fuck this" and basically never made contact again with them. Eventually this led to my last booking and then my career died. To this day (7 years later), I still get spotify plays from those old songs, and I still get messages every now and then of people asking what happened and why I stopped making this music.
  9. I would like to mention that my interest for that specific genre was fading away near the time I made that post on my social media. Don't get me wrong, obviously, I would've loved to keep doing it as my job. But personally it just wasn't touching me that much anymore as there were other genres that started to appeal to me more.

Here is an important thing I remember telling my dad at the age of 20, after destroying my career and right before starting some labour work which I absolutely hated. "Dad, I'm going to do this job maximum 3 months before I'm off on another musical adventure in another style!".
So far 7 years have passed hopping jobs and not saving a lot of money. It's only been 2 years I finally been able to quit smoking cannabis. I have made tons of songs in all those years, and removed tons of songs completely from my computer because I hate them at some point and I get angry because of everything.
I get a few plays a month on Spotify with my new musical project but it never really took off. I decided to abandon my previous name and start from scratch because I didn't want any connection to my older project. The closest I got to achieving something big was another famous artist reaching out because he liked one of my songs, but eventually it led to nothing (unfortunately).
I have not played a single show as my new project and haven't got close to being successful or making this my job, at all.
As the years are passing by and I'm slowly starting to realize I'm no longer the "golden boy" (aka the little 13 year old kid with big dreams) it starts to eat me and devastate me mentally. It's a big part of my life and the dream is still alive but it feels like the fire or belief that I will get there is slowly fading away.
There have barely been days that I did not make music but no matter how much I produce or whatever genre or style I try, it doesn't seem to take off.
At this point, and for the last year, or 2-3 years, it has become worse.. I highly doubt every step I take and I feel like I cannot make any decision at all for my musical path anymore. I changed my artist name multiple times and even while writing this post I still think the name isn't good enough and I should start another project from scratch. I basically like a lot of genres and I can't seem to make a choice on what I really wanna go after. The musical world has exploded so much with social media and everything right after my career died and there just seems to be too much choice and things going on. I cannot seem to find the right path and I can't find my fire and ambition like I had when I was younger.
Every now and then I still look back at my musical colleagues which I abandoned 7 years ago and see what they are up to, what the music sounds like and how successful they are right now. It makes me feel worse but some part of me likes looking at it and imagined what I could've become. The fact of seeing them so successful right now and still doing their dream job just makes me even more sad realizing its been 7 years and I'm still living at home, hopping jobs and thinking how to take off on another musical path.
Last year I have met the most amazing girlfriend in the world, and in the meantime I found some other hobbies that I'm passionate about such as trading in forex and doing visuals. But I feel like it will never replace music since that's like my main-quest in life.
If I think about it, being able to do shows again and make an income being a music artist would make me the happiest person alive but there's no way I'm going back to my older project and certainly no way I'm going to knock on the door of my label and say 'Whatsup' after 7 years.
Without a doubt, my behavior and stubbornness led to the most stupid choice I ever made in my life.

Thanks for reading along. I might delete this post later because I feel like I shared too much personal stuff and it makes me insecure. Although I want to admit it felt good writing all of this.
Peace.
submitted by Top-Rub8826 to Advice [link] [comments]

My First Year of Trading

So here it is, three more days and October begins, which marks one year of trading for me. I figured I would contribute to the forum and share some of my experience, a little about me, and what I've learned so far. Whoever wants to listen, that's great. This might get long so buckle up..
Three years ago, I was visiting Toronto. I don't get out much, but my roommate at the time travels there occasionally. He asked everyone at our place if we wanted to come along for a weekend. My roommate has an uncle that lives there and we didn't have to worry about a hotel because his uncle owns a small house that's unlived in which we could stay at. I was the only one to go with. Anyways, we walk around the city, seeing the sights and whatnot.
My friend says to me "where next?"
"I don't know, you're the tour guide"
"We can go check out Bay Street"
"what's 'Bay Street?'"
"It's like the Canadian Wall street! If you haven't seen it you gotta see it!"
Walking along Bay, I admire all the nice buildings and architecture, everything seems larger than life to me. I love things like that. The huge granite facades with intricate designs and towering pillars to make you think, How the fuck did they make that? My attention pivots to a man walking on the sidewalk opposite us. His gait stood out among everyone, he walked with such a purpose.. He laughed into the cell phone to his ear. In the elbow-shoving city environment, he moved with a stride that exuded a power which not only commanded respect, but assumed it. I bet HE can get a text back, hell he's probably got girls waiting on him. This dude was dressed to kill, a navy suit that you could just tell from across the street was way out of my budget, it was a nice fucking suit. I want that. His life, across the street, seemed a world a way from my own. I've worn a suit maybe twice in my life. For my first communion, it was too big for me, I was eleven or whatever so who gives a shit, right? I'm positive I looked ridiculous. The other time? I can't remember.
I want that. I want the suit. I want the wealth, the independence. I want the respect and power, and I don't give a shit what anyone thinks about it.
Cue self doubt.
Well, He's probably some rich banker's son. That's a world you're born into. I don't know shit about it. \sigh* keep walking..*

A year later, I'm visiting my parents at their house, they live an hour away from my place. My dad is back from Tennessee, his engineering job was laying people off and he got canned... Or he saw the end was near and just left... I don't know, hard to pay attention to the guy honestly because he kind of just drones on and on. ("Wait, so your mom lives in Michigan, but your dad moved to Tennessee... for a job?" Yea man, I don't fucking know, not going to touch on that one.) The whole project was a shit show that was doomed to never get done, the way he tells it. And he's obviously jaded from multiple similar experiences at other life-sucking engineer jobs. My mom is a retired nurse practitioner who no longer works because of her illness. I ask him what he's doing for work now and he tells me he trades stocks from home. I didn't even know you could do that. I didn't know "trading" was a thing. I thought you just invest and hope for the best.
"Oh that's cool, how much money do you need to do that?"
"Ehh, most say you need at least $25,000 as a minimum"
"Oh... guess I can't do that..."
Six months later, I get a call and it's my dad. We talk a little about whatever. Off topic, he starts asking if I'm happy doing what I'm doing (I was a painter, commercial and residential) I tell him yes but it's kind of a pain in the ass and I don't see it as a long term thing. Then he gets around to asking if I'd like to come work with him. He basically pitches it to me. I'm not one to be sold on something, I'm always skeptical. So I ask all the questions that any rational person would ask and he just swats them away with reassuring phrases. He was real confident about it. But basically he says for this to work, I have to quit my job and move back home so he can teach me how to trade and be by my side so I don't do anything stupid. "My Name , you can make so much money." I say that I can't raise the $25,000 because I'm not far above just living paycheck to paycheck. "I can help you out with that." Wow, okay, well... let me think about it.
My "maybe" very soon turned into a "definitely." So over the next six months, I continue to work my day job painting, and I try to save up what I could for the transition (it wasn't a whole lot, I sucked at saving. I was great at spending though!). My dad gives me a book on day trading (which I will mention later) and I teach myself what I can about the stock market using Investopedia. Also in the meantime, my dad sends me encouraging emails. He tells me to think of an annual income I would like to make as a trader, and used "more than $100,000 but less than a million" as a guideline. He tells me about stocks that he traded that day or just ones that moved and describes the basic price action and the prices to buy and sell at. Basically saying "if you bought X amount of shares here and sold it at X price here, you could make a quick 500 bucks!" I then use a trading sim to trade those symbols and try to emulate what he says. Piece of cake. ;)
Wow, that's way more than what I make in a day.
He tells me not to tell anyone about my trading because most people just think it's gambling. "Don't tell your Mom either." He says most people who try this fail because they don't know how to stop out and take a loss. He talks about how every day he was in a popular chatroom, some noob would say something like, "Hey guys, I bought at X price (high of day or thereabout), my account is down 80% .. uhh I'm waiting for it to come back to my entry price.. what do I do??"
Well shit, I'm not that fucking dumb. If that's all it takes to make it is to buy low, sell high, and always respect a stop then I'll be fantastic.
By the end of September, I was very determined. I had been looking forward everyday to quitting my painting job because while it used to be something I loved, it was just sucking the life out of me at this point. Especially working commercial, you just get worked like a dog. I wasn't living up to my potential with that job and I felt awful for it every minute of every day. I knew that I needed a job where I could use my brain instead of slaving my body to fulfill someone else's dream. "Someone's gotta put gas in the boss's boat" That's a line my buddy once said that he probably doesn't know sticks with me to this day.
It ain't me.
So now it was October 2018, and I'm back living with Mom n' Pops. I was so determined that on my last day of work I gave away all of my painting tools to my buddy like, "here, I don't need this shit." Moving out of my rental was easy because I don't own much, 'can't take it with ya.' Excited for the future I now spend my days bundled up in winter wear in the cold air of our hoarder-like basement with a space heater at my feet. My laptop connected to a TV monitor, I'm looking at stocks next to my dad and his screens in his cluttered corner. Our Trading Dungeon. I don't trade any money, (I wasn't aware of any real-time sim programs) I just watch and learn from my dad. Now you've got to keep in mind, and look at a chart of the S&P, this is right at the beginning of Oct '18, I came in right at the market top. Right at the start of the shit-show. For the next three or four weeks, I watch my dad pretty much scratch on every trade, taking small loss after small loss, and cursing under his breath at the screen.
Click.
"dammit."
Click.
"shit."
Click. Click.
"you fuck."
Click.
This gets really fucking annoying as time goes on, for weeks, and I get this attitude like ugh, just let me do it. I'll make us some fucking money. So I convince him to let me start trading live. I didn't know anything about brokers so I set up an account using his broker, which was Fidelity. It was a pain and I had to jump through a lot of hoops to be able to day trade with this broker. I actually had to make a joint account with my dad as I couldn't get approved for margin because my credit score is shit (never owned a credit card) and my net worth, not much. Anyways, they straight up discourage day trading and I get all kinds of warning messages with big red letters that made me shit myself like oooaaahhh what the fuck did I do now. Did I forget to close a position?? Did I fat finger an order? Am I now in debt for thousands of dollars to Fidelity?? They're going to come after me like they came after Madoff. Even after you are approved for PDT you still get these warning messages in your account. Some would say if I didn't comply with "whatever rule" they'd even suspend my account for 60 days. It was ridiculous, hard to describe because it doesn't make sense, and it took the support guy on the phone a good 20 minutes to explain it to me. Basically I got the answer "yea it's all good, you did nothing wrong. As long as you have the cash in your account to cover whatever the trade balance was" So I just kept getting these warnings that I had to ignore everyday. I hate Fidelity.
My fist day trading, I made a few so-so trades and then I got impatient. I saw YECO breaking out and I chased, soon realized I chased, so I got out. -$500. Shit, I have to make that back, I don't want my dad to see this. Got back in. Shit. -$400. So my first day trading, I lost $900. My dumbass was using market orders so that sure didn't help. I reeled the risk back and traded more proper position size for a while, but the commissions for a round trip are $10, so taking six trades per day, I'm losing $60 at a minimum on top of my losing trades. Quickly I realized I didn't know what the hell I was doing. What about my dad? Does HE know? One day, in the trading dungeon, I was frustrated with the experience I'd been having and just feeling lost overall. I asked him.
"So, are you consistently profitable?"
"mmm... I do alright."
"Yea but like, are you consistently profitable over time?"
.........................
"I do alright."
Silence.
"Do you know any consistently profitable traders?"
"Well the one who wrote that book I gave you, Tina Turner.. umm and there's Ross Cameron"
......................
"So you don't know any consistently profitable traders, personally.. People who are not trying to sell you something?"
"no."
...................
Holy fucking shit, what did this idiot get me into. He can't even say it to my face and admit it.
This entire life decision, quitting my job, leaving my rental, moving from my city to back home, giving shit away, it all relied on that. I was supposed to be an apprentice to a consistently profitable day trader who trades for a living. It was so assumed, that I never even thought to ask! Why would you tell your son to quit his job for something that you yourself cannot do? Is this all a scam? Did my dad get sold a DREAM? Did I buy into some kind of ponzi scheme? How many of those winning trades he showed me did he actually take? Are there ANY consistently profitable DAY TRADERS who TRADE FOR A LIVING? Why do 90% fail? Is it because the other 10% are scamming the rest in some way? Completely lost, I just had no clue what was what. If I was going to succeed at this, if it was even possible to succeed at this, it was entirely up to me. I had to figure it out. I still remember the feeling like an overwhelming, crushing weight on me as it all sunk in. This is going to be a big deal.. I'm not the type to give up though. In that moment, I said to myself,
I'm going to fucking win at this. I don't know if this is possible, but I'm going to find out. I cannot say with certainty that I will succeed, but no matter what, I will not give up. I'm going to give all of myself to this. I will find the truth.
It was a deep moment for me. I don't like getting on my soapbox, but when I said those things, I meant it. I really, really meant it. I still do, and I still will.
Now it might seem like I'm being hard on my dad. He has done a lot for me and I am very grateful for that. We're sarcastic as hell to each other, I love the bastard. Hell, I wouldn't have the opportunity to trade at all if not for him. But maybe you can also understand how overwhelmed I felt at that time. Not on purpose, of course he means well. But I am not a trusting person at all and I was willing to put trust into him after all the convincing and was very disappointed when I witnessed the reality of the situation. I would have structured this transition to trading differently, you don't just quit your job and start trading. Nobody was there to tell me that! I was told quite the opposite. I'm glad it happened anyway, so fuck it. I heard Kevin O'Leary once say,
"If I knew in the beginning how difficult starting a business was, I don't know that I ever would've started."
This applies very much to my experience.
So what did I do? Well like everyone I read and read and Googled and Youtube'd my ass off. I sure as hell didn't pay for a course because I didn't have the money and I'm like 99% sure I would be disappointed by whatever they were teaching as pretty much everything can be found online or in books for cheap or free. Also I discovered Thinkorswim and I used that to sim trade in real-time for three months. This is way the hell different than going on a sim at 5x speed and just clicking a few buy and sell buttons. Lol, useless. When you sim trade in real-time you're forced to have a routine, and you're forced to experience missing trades with no chance to rewind or skip the boring parts. That's a step up because you're "in it". I also traded real money too, made some, lost more than I made. went back to sim. Traded live again, made some but lost more, fell back to PDT. Dad fronted me more cash. This has happened a few times. He's dug me out of some holes because he believes in me. I'm fortunate.
Oh yeah, about that book my dad gave me. It's called A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online by Toni Turner. This book... is shit. This was supposed to be my framework for how to trade and I swear it's like literally nothing in this book fucking works lol. I could tell this pretty early on, intuitively, just by looking at charts. It's basically a buy-the-breakout type strategy, if you want to call it a strategy. No real methodology to anything just vague crap and showing you cherry-picked charts with entries that are way too late. With experience in the markets you will eventually come to find that MOST BREAKOUTS FAIL. It talks about support/resistance lines and describes them as, "picture throwing a ball down at the floor, it bounces up and then it bounces down off the ceiling, then back up." So many asinine assumptions. These ideas are a text book way of how to trade like dumb money. Don't get me wrong, these trades can work but you need to be able to identify the setups which are more probable and identify reasons not to take others. So I basically had to un-learn all that shit.
Present day, I have a routine in place. I'm out of the dungeon and trade by myself in my room. I trade with a discount broker that is catered to day traders and doesn't rape me on commissions. My mornings have a framework for analyzing the news and economic events of the particular day, I journal so that I can recognize what I'm doing right and where I need to improve. I record my screens for later review to improve my tape reading skills. I am actually tracking my trades now and doing backtesting in equities as well as forex. I'm not a fast reader but I do read a lot, as much as I can. So far I have read about 17-18 books on trading and psychology. I've definitely got a lot more skilled at trading.
As of yet I am not net profitable. Writing that sounds like selling myself short though, honestly. Because a lot of my trades are very good and are executed well. I have talent. However, lesser quality trades and trades which are inappropriately sized/ attempted too many times bring down that P/L. I'm not the type of trader to ignore a stop, I'm more the trader that just widdles their account down with small losses. I trade live because at this point, sim has lost its value, live trading is the ultimate teacher. So I do trade live but I just don't go big like I did before, I keep it small.
I could show you trades that I did great on and make people think I'm killing it but I really just don't need the validation. I don't care, I'm real about it. I just want to get better. I don't need people to think I'm a genius, I'm just trying to make some money.
Psychologically, to be honest with you, I currently feel beaten down and exhausted. I put a lot of energy into this, and sometimes I work myself physically sick, it's happened multiple times. About once a week, usually Saturday, I get a headache that lasts all day. My body's stress rebound mechanism you might call it. Getting over one of those sick periods now, which is why I barely even traded this week. I know I missed a lot of volatility this week and some A+ setups but I really just don't give a shit lol. I just currently don't have the mental capital, I think anyone who's been day trading every day for a year or more can understand what I mean by that. I'm still being productive though. Again, I'm not here to present an image of some badass trader, just keeping it real. To give something 100% day after day while receiving so much resistance, it takes a toll on you. So a break is necessary to avoid making bad trading decisions. That being said, I'm progressing more and more and eliminating those lesser quality trades and identifying my bad habits. I take steps to control those habits and strengthen my good habits such as having a solid routine, doing review and market research, taking profits at the right times, etc.
So maybe I can give some advice to some that are new to day trading, those who are feeling lost, or just in general thinking "...What the fuck..." I thought that every night for the first 6 months lol.
First of all, manage expectations. If you read my story of how I came to be a trader, you can see I had a false impression of trading in many aspects. Give yourself a realistic time horizon to how progress should be made. Do not set a monetary goal for yourself, or any time-based goal that is measured in your P/L. If you tell yourself, "I want to make X per day, X per week, or X per year" you're setting yourself up to feel like shit every single day when it's clear as the blue sky that you won't reach that goal anytime soon. As a matter of fact, it will appear you are moving further AWAY from that goal if you just focus on your P/L, which brings me to my next point.
You will lose money. In the beginning, most likely, you will lose money. I did it, you'll do it, the greatest Paul Tudor Jones did it. Trading is a skill that needs to be developed, and it is a process. Just look at it as paying your tuition to the market. Sim is fine but don't assume you have acquired this skill until you are adept at trading real money. So when you do make that leap, just trade small.
Just survive. Trade small. get the experience. Protect your capital. To reach break even on your bottom line is a huge accomplishment. In many ways, experience and screen time are the secret sauce.
Have a routine. This is very important. I actually will probably make a more in-depth post in the future about this if people want it. When I first started, I was overwhelmed with the feeling "What the fuck am I supposed to DO?" I felt lost. There's no boss to tell you how to be productive or how to find the right stocks, which is mostly a blessing, but a curse for new traders.
All that shit you see, don't believe all that bullshit. You know what I'm talking about. The bragposting, the clickbait Youtube videos, the ads preying on you. "I made X amount of money in a day and I'm fucking 19 lolz look at my Lamborghini" It's all a gimmick to sell you the dream. It's designed to poke right at your insecurities, that's marketing at it's finest. As for the bragposting on forums honestly, who cares. And I'm not pointing fingers on this forum, just any trading forum in general. They are never adding anything of value to the community in their posts. They never say this is how I did it. No, they just want you to think they're a genius. I can show you my $900 day trading the shit out of TSLA, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Gamblers never show you when they lose, you might never hear from those guys again because behind the scenes, they over-leveraged themselves and blew up. Some may actually be consistently profitable and the trades are 100% legit. That's fantastic. But again, I don't care, and you shouldn't either. You shouldn't compare yourself to others.
"Everyone's a genius in a bull market" Here's the thing.. Markets change. Edges disappear. Trading strategies were made by traders who traded during times when everything they did worked. Buy all the breakouts? Sure! It's the fucking tech bubble! Everything works! I'm sure all those typical setups used to work fantastically at some point in time. But the more people realize them, the less effective they are. SOMEONE has to be losing money on the opposite side of a winning trade, and who's willing to do that when the trade is so obvious? That being said, some things are obvious AND still work. Technical analysis works... sometimes. The caveat to that is, filters. You need to, in some way, filter out certain setups from others. For example, you could say, "I won't take a wedge pattern setup on an intraday chart unless it is in a higher time frame uptrend, without nearby resistance, and trading above average volume with news on that day."
Have a plan. If you can't describe your plan, you don't have one. Think in probabilities. You should think entirely in "if, then" scenarios. If X has happens, then Y will probably happen. "If BABA breaks this premarket support level on the open I will look for a pop up to short into."
Backtest. Most traders lose mainly because they think they have an edge but they don't. You read these books and all this stuff online telling you "this is a high probability setup" but do you know that for a fact? There's different ways to backtest, but I think the best way for a beginner is manual backtesting with a chart and an excel sheet. This builds up that screen time and pattern recognition faster. This video shows how to do that. Once I saw someone do it, it didn't seem so boring and awful as I thought it was.
Intelligence is not enough. You're smarter than most people, that's great, but that alone is not enough to make you money in trading necessarily. Brilliant people try and fail at this all the time, lawyers, doctors, surgeons, engineers.. Why do they fail if they're so smart? It's all a fucking scam. No, a number of reasons, but the biggest is discipline and emotional intelligence.
Journal every day. K no thanks, bro. That's fucking gay. That's how I felt when I heard this advice but really that is pride and laziness talking. This is the process you need to do to learn what works for you and what doesn't. Review the trades you took, what your plan was, what actually happened, how you executed. Identify what you did well and what you can work on. This is how you develop discipline and emotional intelligence, by monitoring yourself. How you feel physically and mentally, and how these states affect your decision-making.
Always be learning. Read as much as you can. Good quality books. Here's the best I've read so far;
Market Wizards -Jack Schwager
One Good Trade -Mike Bellafiore
The Daily Trading Coach -Bret Steenbarger
Psycho-cybernetics -Maxwell Maltz
Why You Win or Lose -Fred Kelly
The Art and Science of Technical Analysis -Adam Grimes
Dark Pools -Scott Patterson
Be nimble. Everyday I do my research on the symbols I'm trading and the fundamental news that's driving them. I might be trading a large cap that's gapping up with a beat on EPS and revenue and positive guidance. But if I see that stock pop up and fail miserably on the open amidst huge selling pressure, and I look and see the broader market tanking, guess what, I'm getting short, and that's just day trading. The movement of the market, on an intraday timeframe, doesn't have to make logical sense.
Adapt. In March I used to be able to buy a breakout on a symbol and swing it for the majority of the day. In the summer I was basically scalping on the open and being done for the day. Volatility changes, and so do my profit targets.
Be accountable. Be humble. Be honest. I take 100% responsibility for every dime I've lost or made in the market. It's not the market makers fault, it wasn't the HFTs, I pressed the button. I know my bad habits and I know my good habits.. my strengths/ my weaknesses.
Protect yourself from toxicity. Stay away from traders and people on forums who just have that negative mindset. That "can't be done" mentality. Day trading is a scam!! It can certainly be done. Prove it, you bastard. I'm posting to this particular forum because I don't see much of that here and apparently the mods to a good job of not tolerating it. As the mod wrote in the rules, they're most likely raging from a loss. Also, the Stocktwits mentality of "AAPL is going to TANK on the open! $180, here we come. $$$" , or the grandiose stories, "I just knew AMZN was going to go up on earnings. I could feel it. I went ALL IN. Options money, baby! ka-ching!$" Lol, that is so toxic to a new trader. Get away from that. How will you be able to remain nimble when this is your thought process?
Be good to yourself. Stop beating yourself up. You're an entrepreneur. You're boldly going where no man has gone before. You've got balls.
Acknowledge your mistakes, don't identify with them. You are not your mistakes and you are not your bad habits. These are only things that you do, and you can take action necessary to do them less.
It doesn't matter what people think. Maybe they think you're a fool, a gambler. You don't need their approval. You don't need to talk to your co-workers and friends about it to satisfy some subconscious plea for guidance; is this a good idea?
You don't need anyone's permission to become the person you want to be.
They don't believe in you? Fuck 'em. I believe in you.
submitted by indridcold91 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Noob here, can you confirm my strategy has any chance of winning?

I just started out in FX last week after a 25% loss of my portfolio with stock options I'm trying out forex and built out a strategy that relies on the Ichimoku clouds and I trade only for couple of minutes. So far I've recovered 5% of my loss but I might just have been lucky.
My strategy so far goes like this. I follow the minute chart, enter a trade once a trend had been set (ie, price above or bellow the cloud), if the price changes trend on the minute chart by going bellow/above the cloud I close and take the loss, if the price continues to go in my direction I hold until I'm happy with the profit or nears a price resistance.
The disadvantages I see, it's slow, no big profits unless there's news and if there's big volatility I might endup going on loss. What I like about the strategy is that it makes me responsible, it enforces a stop loss for me that is not just based on gut feeling, also if a trend becomes strong, my stop goes higher and higher, thus securing profit.
What you guys think about it? is it stupid? is there a way to improve it?
submitted by CGeorges89 to Forex [link] [comments]

22 year old friendship ruined, need your thoughts....

I'd love some perspective on a recent story that's bothering me. Any and all perspectives welcomed.
In August last year an old friend (we're 38 now and 16 when we met) had been doing a guidance ritual with his mum who is trained to be a shaman… she gave him LSD as part of the ritual- and I haven't tried it so I don't know what it's like.
Anyway, for some reason I contacted him out of the blue the next day when he was still feeling some of the effects. He told me that he loved me, probably always had and it had been a long time coming. I was really surprised, but it was lovely. On some level I'd always felt like that about him (I denied it a lot over the years) but really didn't think that he would ever say or feel something like that.
In that convo he said I'd make a great girlfriend and he'd be lucky to have me, I was really smart and lovely but intense and opinionated. Also, that ironically he thought he'd missed his one chance at happiness with me (you can understand the ironically part when you know the backstory). He said I was beautiful and he was stupid for not being completely in love with me. He said he was sure we'd known each other in past lives. I was very touched by all of this because I adore him but I took it with a pinch of salt, and tried to find out if it was just a fleeting feeling.
But he also said that his life is on a dark path, and that in this lifetime he is only meant to suffer, maybe he'll be dead by 50 and we should see each other in the next life. He said he has huge issues (lots of drink and drugs of many types), is also very intense, and I'd never be able to handle the up and down of his lifestyle.
I got the feeling that he was having those thoughts about loving me for the first time right then, so I asked him if he’d felt like that before, or just that night. And he said he’d thought it the last time we spoke when I’d interviewed him for a book a couple of years previously. But I didn’t get the impression he’d really felt like that when we were younger.
I checked a month or 2 later if he remembered what he said because I thought maybe he had just been high. He said he thought he remembered everything he had said, and said I wasn't very nice for not believing him, so I was really happy and decided to go and see him.
Fast forward a couple months to after Christmas - I hadn't been to see him yet- but we’d been messaging and sending photos. For Christmas, his mum had bought him a tarot card reading with a chocolate ritual with a shaman or a psychic lady, and he was sharing with me that he'd done it and that it said his head was really messed up. He seemed quite upset.
So me being 5% moron, my nervousness and excitedness had returned (I was always very, very nervous around him when we were young) and I made a joke he really didn't appreciate, offering to shoot him in the head if he wanted (I was trying to lighten the mood, and also we seemed to be getting a bit more gentle, intimate and less jokey in the way that we were talking to each other, which freaks me out. He's much sweeter than he used to be, and it kind of makes me freeze up a bit).
Well! Bang. It was like I stabbed him in the chest or something. It seemed to instantly remind him of all the things that annoy him about me, and after 5 months being really sweet he went cold on me. Really, really cold. From there I got very confused and kept making worse mistakes because I got nervous, and kept trying to fix it. I sent him some long, weird email which I’m sure made things worse. I also posted something on Facebook which made it look like I was chatting to other guys. All very silly. It's ridiculous. I'm an adult and am pretty confident these days. But suddenly I was really nervous again feeling like a kid and like there’s something terribly wrong with me.
I arranged to go and see him for a few days in Tenerife, and before I went it was pretty tense between us and I couldn't tell if he wanted me to go or not- I did everything I could to try and find out if he actually wanted me to go or not- but he was his usual tight-lipped self. When I got there, he was very hospitable, apologized for being off-radar and showed me round, we went out to bars and the beach...
We spent four days (before he had to go home to England) as a quasi-couple, and it was a very surreal experience. It was bizarrely intimate, sweet but tense, with someone I know very well... naked. For the first time I realised how peace-loving and gentle he is- which I never saw before. He can't stand a lot of the more boisterous things I do, which is fair, but ironically they're things I tended to do from nerves and trying to get his attention. I kind of got it after that- why he finds me so aversive sometimes, it's like we're stuck in a negative feedback loop, and he thinks I’m too harsh for his delicate constitution. Which, he might just be right about.
In between the fun, laughing, joking, drinking, sex and bonding- of which there was lots and it was really nice - he was filled with sadness and depression, grumpiness, and a funny attitude from him that seemed to shout: "yuck, it's you, you're more like a sisteannoying irritation than a woman to me." He said that it was because his life was falling apart- and he was obviously very very depressed but trying to show me a good time and doing a good job of it too, I might add. But so many things pointed to the fact that he mainly just felt annoyed by me, found me totally unsuitable, and kind of pitied me, rather than feeling any love for me, and that he finds me generally very annoying. Wall up, blinds closed, aint comin' in.
He also kept telling me about his lifestyle of drink and drugs and how everyone he knows is a junky or a crazy person. It felt like he was trying very hard to make me see reality and put me off him, or save me from him, or warn me, or see how I would react and if I would run. Or save himself from what he sees as inevitable hostility and rejection (as well as from me and how annoying I am). "Be careful what you wish for" and "curiosity killed the cat" seemed to be his repetitive catchphrases when I showed an interest in him. Apparently, his ex thinks he's a bastard, he would tell me.
I think, ideally, if he could change me (he used to talk a lot about me doing DHT to rebalance myself) he would want to be in a relationship, because we enjoy each other’s company. But it could only work if he was tougher and I was less harsh. I think he sees these things quite clearly as they are – that he’s got a delicate constitution, and I’m far too frustrated by him to be delicate enough for things to work out. I’d soon get pissed off and ditch the situation, rather than sweep things under the rug and carry on from day to day in a carefree world of consumption- I just couldn’t do that. I’m a strategic future-planner.
At one point we played some intimacy/trust game with lots of questions, and he loosened up a little... but the way he would answer questions like "Name 3 things you like about your partner" was like "well you ARE very caring" in the same way that someone might say "Well, Hitler WAS very spiritual." It's funny because in relationships I'm very soft in general, in recent years, but I do still get very harsh and frustrated when problems don’t seem solvable. But with him I just can't seem to relax and trust him enough to be soft with him at all, and he didn't give me a chance anyway. We just don’t trust each other- we’re not safe for each other.
After I went home he checked in with me a couple times, which I liked. He tried to share some things with me that interest him, about quite spiritual or unusual subjects (trees being interconnected, aliens having been involved in human development, DHT, the memory of water… stuff that as someone who studied physics I don’t normally hear about, but I’m pretty open to hearing about them)- he's very soft and very chilled- doesn’t like stress at all. But every time I tried to dig a bit deeper and engage with him to see what it was about them that interested him - he completely ignored me. Didn’t try, nothing. Me trying to talk with him about the things he shared seemed to send the walls up and just bug him. Really really frustrating. It's like I couldn't do anything right. Particularly frustrating when he said he was trying to open up my mind- but then wouldn't connect or follow through.
So, for a couple months, for the first time in 20 years I seemed to be chasing him. It's like he promised me something, judged me for being nervous and "annoying" and not perfect, and then instead of being understanding, he ran. Yikes.
Eventually I got so confused I sent him screenshots of the conversation where he'd said he loved me and he didn't even remember it! He was shocked, blamed it on the drugs and mental illness saying that he was "not a well person." He said he was beginning to get the feeling that he'd "annoyed me" now, and that he sees me as a friend, and he didn't mean to piss me off. Then he changed the subject. He finished up that conversation by saying "we're on different paths and in different places", and he needs to sort himself out and that's that.
The backstory goes like this… The first year we knew eachother he nicknamed me “TT” which meant “no tits and no teeth” (I had big gaps before I had braces). He used to do things like hit me on the butt with a stick and then I’d punch him and go nuts. He really took the piss out of me with his friends and girlfriends because I had a huge crush on him (he thought it was hilarious that I felt like I’d been struck by lightning when I first saw him). They used to put me on speakerphone and laugh. He was the only guy I ever asked out – which I did on his answer machine!! Ugh. So, yeah, really humiliated me actually and I’ve never asked anyone out since (thank goodness I’m a woman, haha).
After that I had braces and turned into a social person who had lots of parties and friends. He started being really nice to me. But I didn’t forgive him very easily, and we had a big bust up and weren't friends for a year or so. I did a pizza leaflet with his phone number on it. And I banned him from my 18th birthday party to which all our friends were going, and he was pretty upset. I felt bad once when I saw him outside one of my parties on the curb holding his head in his hands saying “why does she hate me so much?” Well, deep down I loved the guy, but he’d humiliated me, so I guess there was a thin line between love and hate. I don’t know if that would have made him feel any better, but hopefully.
From some point on, we made up and we always had great chemistry after that... we did things like hanging out and smoking some weed in his car together with other people, going out in London with our mutual friends, him giving me lots of lifts home from pubs and friends houses, me driving his car drunk and pretending I was going to crash it to wind him up (that was stupid and irresponsible).
Looking back I think he kind of liked me at that point but was scared of me, didn’t know how to make a move as I had moved on and had given him such a hard time, but at the time I really didn't have a clue whether he liked me or not, I was always just very, very feisty and energetic around him (after all the humiliation I guess) so I could never be calm.
Then we went to the same uni town, texted constantly for a year, and even then he said he thought we’d known each other in past lives. To my friends I gave him the nickname "my future husband", he asked me out in the cutest way by saying that if I had the guts and the inclination to go out with him, then we should go for a drink. I was soooo excited..
Well, we almost went out and then he dropped out of uni because of an argument with a lecturer or something. I honestly believe everyone has to follow their own path, so for me it was just sad for him that he had so much stress, and it was disappointing about the date. Our first kiss was when he came up to the uni town again and we did a pub crawl, and he seemed to want to go and sit somewhere and be sweet but I was too nervous so we just kept doing the pubcrawl and ended up spooning on a friend’s floor (just hugging and kissing).
We almost went on a date in our home area but he cancelled without suggesting an alternative, and I got annoyed so he stopped talking to me- surprisingly easily- it’s like he has a very low threshold for any kind of angst, and isn’t able to soothe himself or the other person, so just bails. Which, considering the fact that he creates a lot of angst-provoking situations means that he kind of expects to go through life without facing any consequences for his actions. Pretty frustrating for someone like me, who expects quite a lot of openness and honesty.
We eventually hooked up once and he never called me after so after waiting for a while, I reluctantly moved on and ended up with someone else for 4 years. I have no idea how he felt about this, but a couple of small things surprised me and I wondered if he had actually felt more than I gave him credit for. I mean, that love confession blew me away, I wouldn't have thought for a moment that he had been harbouring any thoughts like that about me, I thought for him it was all a big joke and meant nothing, so maybe he did feel something other than annoyance for me when we were younger.
It's hard to tell as he's been with a lot of women, is very tight-lipped and doesn’t put himself on the line, or take any risks at all. But in those days I was always so nervous around him that any signs would have just gone completely under the radar anyway.
A few years later, after lots of traveling, he popped up working in the office down the hall from me at this random summer job I took and we started emailing lots. He seemed disappointed with how life was not as exciting as he'd expected. Then he disappeared one day- he was living with his ex at the time (very lovely girl) and I was with the same guy (the 4 year one).
A few years after that we were back hanging around in the same social circle until everyone, including him, moved abroad, and eventually, so did i. It was funny, I would always be able to talk to him if I was upset about, say, moving to uni or something. It didn't happen often but a couple of times.
Most of this he probably wouldn't even remember because I think he's been with a lot a lot of girls.
He has low self-esteem, apparently. He thinks he has bad luck with women even though women adore him (he's exceptionally easy on the eyes. He’s beautiful actually)- and according to a mutual friend of ours, when he was a teenager he always worried that no decent women would want someone like him.
Recently (in the past 15 years, which isn’t so recent, lol) we didn't really hang out much but we became more normal adults. I went down quite a dry academic path and got a BSc in physics with astrophysics and an MSc in clinical research, and ended up stuck in a corporate job I hated until I quit to become a writer, whereas he had more balls than me and did what he wanted much earlier- becoming an entrepreneur trading stock, gold, Forex, imports and exports... at times making a fortune and at other times going bust and beating himself up for it, but always finding something new to try, which I think's pretty damn cool (but try convincing him of that).
It's pretty normal for entrepreneurial people to have ups and downs in their success-levels I think, but he seems to judge himself very harshly. The last couple of years he’s been making more money than I’ve ever been able to shake a stick at! I really don’t think he should feel ashamed at all (which he seems to), I think he should feel proud that he’s so dynamic. Good for him. He’s awesome. The only thing I wish is that he had heavy enough emotional armor that he could deal with more difficult situations without bailing.
Anyway. Over the years I stopped being super into him and we had a nice, pretty normal friendship -we chatted sometimes on messenger and would always have nice chemistry when we saw each other. He's been trying to arrange a visit for about 10 years or so between the various countries we've been living in (we're both expat people and he wanted to come see me in Madrid and Amsterdam when I lived there, then he wanted me to go seem him in Tenerife for a few years) and I've avoided it, as although I wanted to see him I was scared of a casual fling with him as it’s not what I wanted, and I really don’t like that kind of thing anyway (tried it once or twice thinking I could handle it and I was being all “modern” and cool and everything – because I think I’m a bit old fashioned deep down - but I got emotionally attached and then end up hurt. So now I accept myself for who I am- someone who doesn’t really like flings or casual stuff, but someone who is into monogamy. Whoops! How very boring and unfashionable, and I don’t give a shit. Rayyyy for the love. Whoop whoop.).
A couple years ago I interviewed him for a book I wrote about ADHD entrepreneurs. His lifestyle was pretty cool making a lot of money through affiliate marketing and living near the beach in hot sunny Tenerife in an apartment with a pool. But he seemed to think that he sucked for some reason (everyone else seems to think it's pretty darn cool). He said that when he grew up he was under a lot of pressure and that it seemed to have messed up his head. He said that to do well in life you need to do what you want to do, because if you listen to other people you are only going to be messed up. When he was on LSD he said that he had thought he loved me during that interview.
This year, his life as an expat abroad basically fell apart as the affiliate marketing scheme crashed and he had to move home to live with his parents, which has brought him really, really down into depression. He said he keeps being told he is going to end up working in McDonalds, and being reminded of the fact that he’s almost 40, and this seemed to be weighing on his mind. It sounds like a lot of pressure.
But anyway, for about 5 months after the conversation when he was on LSD he opened up to me, and he was really lovely to me. It was so nice. I guess it was because I was more relaxed and the main thing I wanted was to check up on him and see that he was ok. I didn’t have an agenda to see if he would be a match for me or anything like that- I was just really worried about him. So maybe he felt safe enough to relax.
I said that I always imagined that we would end up as platonic roommates when we were 50 and I would make him sandwiches and listen to all his funny antics – which he thought was cute. Actually, I really did like that idea- because it would take away the underlying obligations that a relationship brings that we couldn’t deliver for each other. And friendship is what relationships turn into anyway.
For my part, it's really disturbed my sleep for months since I came back from visiting him.
Now after trying to message in a friendly way during the coronavirus quarantine (er, I am very very bored) and being annoyed by his total lack of supportiveness, I've recently just told him that I don't want to be friends any more. Too painful. He says I have anger issues and I think he sees himself as an innocent victim.
Actually, if I'm honest, I've been pretty angry at a lot of people for a few years, so, maybe he has a point.
I guess I'm being a bit selfish. It's not really fair expecting anything from a self-confessed depressed, unwell person. He's "in his pit of despair" as he calls it for 6 months and he has zero interest in me. I'm utterly irrelevant to him. He's snippy, rude, ignores me, and then seems to offer a little bit of an olive branch in the smallest of ways.
Excuse the really long story, would be interested in any insight people have on this situation, particularly with respect to how you think he feels and why he acts the way he does. If I feel like I understand this situation then hopefully I can stop thinking about it, because for the past 10 years I've just had the odd nice thought every now and then about him- and would like that to become the status quo again.
submitted by clarejackson10 to relationship_advice [link] [comments]

Question about forex trading as a European

Hello guys, I'm new to forex trading and I'm still learning the basics so please don't judge me if my question is stupid. Ok so i noticed that in pairs with the usd, the usd is usually the quote currency, which is very convenient for americans because you are selling the currency you already have and buy something else (like with the EUUSD you are selling dollars and buying euros). But in pairs with the eur, the eur is usually the base currency (EUUSD, EUGBP, EUAUD... ). So how does it really work for a European that trades with euros? like i already have euros, why would i sell usd to buy more euros (EUUSD) ? it sounds stupid. Am i missing something? I hope that you can understand my question i tried to phrase it the best i could.
submitted by mariapsrk to Forex [link] [comments]

I Will Learn Trading In 6 Months

Last week I got laid off from my job (which I kind of engineered, to be honest) and I have bee interested in forex since November. I have been lurking on this sub since then and have gained a good amount of value from the posters and recommendations I have found.

Right now, I'm working my way through babypips course, I'm on the undergraduate section. Unemployment pays me enough to cover all my living expenses as long as I don't do something stupid, and I have $6k saved up from last year to trade with when I am ready. No debt, and I can collect for 6 months max, after which time I must be profitable to not have to go back to working construction (I am a plumber by trade). I must be able to clear about $3k per month after taxes in order to live an acceptable lifestyle.

I feel optimistic because this week I have replenished my Metatrader simulation account back to 10k, where I started. When I was just learning and practicing, I was down to 6k, which was a month ago. This is the first week I have been able to trade full time, and already I see many opportunities and systems I can create. I mostly like to trade trends, with some breakouts in specific cases, like news events. I plan to go live when my practice account is at 20k, and I have polished my trading strategies. Of course, I will repeat the babypips course once again, maybe two more times even.

In addition, over these next six months, I am looking at branching out into several different areas to enhance my trading abilities. For example, I have an idea to create a fundamental economic matrix in Excel with weighted values on each different aspect, such as interest rates, GDP growth, etc. In addition, I am considering learning some coding to at least set up my own alerts. Also, I believe some mathematical/probability courses might be beneficial, but I don't really know where to start with that (I have done some college, no more than Calc 1 though).

So far, a combination of fundamentals with technical appeals to me, although I would consider myself more of a technical trader. Do you guys have any recommendations for further education? More importantly, are my goals within my timeframe even possible?
submitted by nroudyk to Forex [link] [comments]

Come check out my new personal finance youtube channel (mainly started to help my friends) for Kiwis (but not restricted to NZ only tbh)

Hey redditors!
I'm quite new to using Reddit but good to see there is a NZ personal finance community. I grew up in East Auckland and been investing here and there (many different investment classes) like commodities, forex, and family house extension etc... now mainly focusing on ETF/Company stocks and cryptocurrency. Always had a big interest in personal finance since I started earning my own pocket money in college.
So if you are interested in Sharesies, Crypto, Budgeting, ETF, Stocks, Kiwisaver, Global Economics, Global Financial State or just doing personal finance better, hope my content helps you a bit. I am hoping to learn from yall as well through discussions and comments.
Just a bit about myself...
I'm just a normal guy in his early-mid 20s, working in the IT industry, trying to make build a nice hefty portfolio in the future of many investment classes and hopefully help my friends and other people who are interested in the space. I started this channel because I have been asked quite a lot of times on how they should be budgeting and saving/investing. I guess we are at a stage in our lives (23 years old) where we start earning decent money from full time jobs but don't really know what to do with it. I've made mistakes and learnt a lot of things the hard way, so hopefully I can help yall to avoid obvious stupid mistakes in your journey!
Other than that, I do general concepts of personal finance, budgeting, and investing. I try my best to explain things to some level of depth but do understand I'm not a financial expert, so please do cross validate my content and DYOR if you intend to act on it. I just have knowledge in decent personal finance, excel sheets, economics and financial cycles etc. The interest grew into something slightly bigger, now that I have more time after work :)
Comment down below to discuss about anything related and hope we all benefit from it!
And lastly, here is my personal finance channel link :D
P.S. Yea my editing and thumbnails are meh haha please let me get into it slowly as this is just a side gig for now. The content is the most important part :D
submitted by choiboy_96 to PersonalFinanceNZ [link] [comments]

[Not my post] The Structure of Forex Brokers

Originally posted by Darkstar at Forex Factory.
Disclaimer: I did not write this. I found this post on ForexFactory written by a user called DarkStar, which I believe a lot of redditors will benefit from reading.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There has been much discussion of late regarding borker spreads and liquidity. Many assumptions are being made about why spreads are widened during news time that are built on an incomplete knowledge of the architecture of the forex market in general. The purpose of this article is to dissect the market and hopefully shed some light on the situation so that a more rational and productive discussion can be undertaken by the Forex Factory members.
We will begin with an explanation of the purpose of the Forex market and how it is utilized by its primary participants, expand into the structure and operation of the market, and conclude with the implications of this information for speculators. With that having been said, let us begin.
Unlike the various bond and equity markets, the Forex market is not generally utilized as an investment medium. While speculation has a critical role in its proper function, the lion’s share of Forex transactions are done as a function of international business.
The guy who buys a shiny new Eclipse more then likely will pay for it with US Dollars. Unfortunately Mitsubishi’s factory workers in Japan need to get their paychecks denominated in Yen, so at some point a conversion needs to be made. When one considers that companies like Exxon, Boeing, Sony, Dell, Honda, and thousands of other international businesses move nearly every dollar, real, yen, rubble, pound, and euro they make in a foreign country through the Forex market, it isn’t hard to understand how insignificant the speculative presence is; even in a $2tril per day market.
By and large, businesses don’t much care about the intricacies of exchange rates, they just want to make and sell their products. As a central repository of a company’s money, it was only natural that the banks would be the facilitators of these transactions. In the old days it was easy enough for a bank to call a foreign bank (or a foreign branch of ones own bank) and swap the stockpiles of currency each had accumulated from their many customers.
Just as any business would, the banks bought the foreign currency at one rate and marked it up before selling it to the customer. With that the foreign exchange spread was born. This was (and still is) a reasonable cost of doing business. Mitsubishi can pay its customers and the banks make a nice little profit for the hassle and risks associated with moving around the currency.
As a byproduct of transacting all this business, bank traders developed the ability to speculate on the future of currency rates. Utilizing a better understanding of the market, a bank could quote a business a spread on the current rate but hold off hedging until a better one came along. This process allowed the banks to expand their net income dramatically. The unfortunate consequence was that liquidity was redistributed in a way that made certain transactions impossible to complete.
It was for this reason and this reason alone that the market was eventually opened up to non-bank participants. The banks wanted more orders in the market so that a) they could profit from the less experienced participants, and b) the less experienced participants could provide a better liquidity distribution for execution of international business hedge orders. Initially only megacap hedge funds (such as Soros’s and others) were permitted, but it has since grown to include the retail brokerages and ECNs.

Market Structure:
Now that we have established why the market exists, let’s take a look at how the transactions are facilitated:
The top tier of the Forex market is transacted on what is collectively known as the Interbank. Contrary to popular belief the Interbank is not an exchange; it is a collection of communication agreements between the world’s largest money center banks.
To understand the structure of the Interbank market, it may be easier to grasp by way of analogy. Consider that in an office (or maybe even someone’s home) there are multiple computers connected via a network cable. Each computer operates independently of the others until it needs a resource that another computer possesses. At that point it will contact the other computer and request access to the necessary resource. If the computer is working properly and its owner has given the requestor authorization to do so, the resource can be accessed and the initiating computers request can be fulfilled. By substituting computers for banks and resources for currency, you can easily grasp the relationships that exist on the Interbank.
Anyone who has ever tried to find resources on a computer network without a server can appreciate how difficult it can be to keep track of who has what resources. The same issue exists on the Interbank market with regard to prices and currency inventory. A bank in Singapore may only rarely transact business with a company that needs to exchange some Brazilian Real and it can be very difficult to establish what a proper exchange rate should be. It is for this purpose that EBS and Reuters (hereafter EBS) established their services.
Layered on top (in a manner of speaking) of the Interbank communication links, the EBS service enables banks to see how much and at what prices all the Interbank members are willing to transact. Pains should be taken to express that EBS is not a market or a market maker; it is an application used to see bids and offers from the various banks.
The second tier of the market exists essential within each bank. By calling your local Bank of America branch you can exchange any foreign currency you would like. More then likely they will just move some excess currency from one branch to another. Since this is a micro-exchange with a single counterparty, you are basically at their mercy as to what exchange rate they will quote you. Your choice is to accept their offer or shop a different bank. Everyone who trades the forex market should visit their bank at least once to get a few quotes. It would be very enlightening to see how lucrative these transactions really are.
Branching off of this second tier is the third tier retail market. When brokers like Oanda, Forex.com, FXCM, etc. desire to establish a retail operation the first thing they need is a liquidity provider. Nine in ten of these brokers will sign an agreement with just one bank. This bank will agree to provide liquidity if and only if they can hedge it on EBS inclusive of their desired spread. Because the volume will be significantly higher a single bank patron will transact, the spreads will be much more competitive. By no means should it be expected these tier 3 providers will be quoted precisely what exists on the Interbank. Remember the bank is in the business of collecting spreads and no agreement is going to suspend that priority.
Retail forex is almost akin to running a casino. The majority of its participants have zero understanding how to trade effectively and as a result are consistent losers. The spread system combined with a standard probability distribution of returns gives the broker a built in house advantage of a few percentage points. As a result, they have all built internal order matching systems that play one loser off against a winner and collect the spread. On the occasions when disequilibrium exists within the internal order book, the broker hedges any exposure with their tier 2 liquidity provider.
As bad as this may sound, there are some significant advantages for speculators that deal with them. Because it is an internal order book, many features can be provided which are otherwise unavailable through other means. Non-standard contract sizes, high leverage on tiny account balances, and the ability to transact in a commission free environment are just a few of them…
An ECN operates similar to a Tier 2 bank, but still exists on the third tier. An ECN will generally establish agreements with several tier 2 banks for liquidity. However instead of matching orders internally, it will just pass through the quotes from the banks, as is, to be traded on. It’s sort of an EBS for little guys. There are many advantages to the model, but it is still not the Interbank. The banks are going to make their spread or their not go to waste their time. Depending on the bank this will take the form of price shading or widened spreads depending on market conditions. The ECN, for its trouble, collects a commission on each transaction.
Aside from the commission factor, there are some other disadvantages a speculator should consider before making the leap to an ECN. Most offer much lower leverage and only allow full lot transactions. During certain market conditions, the banks may also pull their liquidity leaving traders without an opportunity to enter or exit positions at their desired price.

Trade Mechanics:
It is convenient to believe that in a $2tril per day market there is always enough liquidity to do what needs to be done. Unfortunately belief does not negate the reality that for every buyer there MUST be a seller or no transaction can occur. When an order is too large to transact at the current price, the price moves to the point where open interest is abundant enough to cover it. Every time you see price move a single pip, it means that an order was executed that consumed (or otherwise removed) the open interest at the current price. There is no other way that prices can move.
As we covered earlier, each bank lists on EBS how much and at what price they are willing to transact a currency. It is important to note that no Interbank participant is under any obligation to make a transaction if they do not feel it is in their best interest. There are no “market makers” on the Interbank; only speculators and hedgers.
Looking at an ECN platform or Level II data on the stock market, one can get a feel for what the orders on EBS look like. The following is a sample representation:
You’ll notice that there is open interest (Level II Vol figures) of various sizes at different price points. Each one of those units represents existing limit orders and in this example, each unit is $1mil in currency.
Using this information, if a market sell order was placed for 38.4mil, the spread would instantly widen from 2.5 pips to 4.5 pips because there would no longer be any orders between 1.56300 and 1.56345. No broker, market maker, bank, or thief in the night widened the spread; it was the natural byproduct of the order that was placed. If no additional orders entered the market, the spread would remain this large forever. Fortunately, someone somewhere will deem a price point between those 2 figures an appropriate opportunity to do something and place an order. That order will either consume more interest or add to it, depending whether it is a market or limit order respectively.
What would have happened if someone placed a market sell order for 2mil just 1 millisecond after that 38.4 mil order hit? They would have been filled at 1.5630 Why were they “slipped”? Because there was no one to take the other side of the transaction at 1.56320 any longer. Again, nobody was out screwing the trader; it was the natural byproduct of the order flow.
A more interesting question is, what would happen if all the listed orders where suddenly canceled? The spread would widen to a point at which there were existing bids and offers. That may be 5,7,9, or even 100 pips; it is going to widen to whatever the difference between a bid and an offer are. Notice that nobody came in and “set” the spread, they just refused to transact at anything between it.
Nothing can be done to force orders into existence that don’t exist. Regardless what market is being examined or what broker is facilitating transactions, it is impossible to avoid spreads and slippage. They are a fact of life in the realm of trading.

Implications for speculators:
Trading has been characterized as a zero sum game, and rightly so. If trader A sells a security to trader B and the price goes up, trader A lost money that they otherwise could have made. If it goes down, Trader A made money from trader B’s mistake. Even in a huge market like the Forex, each transaction must have a buyer and a seller to make a trade and one of them is going to lose. In the general realm of trading, this is materially irrelevant to each participant. But there are certain situations where it becomes of significant importance. One of those situations is a news event.
Much has been made of late about how it is immoral, illegal, or downright evil for a broker, bank, or other liquidity provider to withdraw their order (increasing the spread) and slip orders (as though it was a conscious decision on their part to do so) more then normal during these events. These things occur for very specific reasons which have nothing to do with screwing anyone. Let us examine why:
Leading up to an economic report for example, certain traders will enter into positions expecting the news to go a certain way. As the event becomes immanent, the banks on the Interbank will remove their speculative orders for fear of taking unnecessary losses. Technical traders will pull their orders as well since it is common practice for them to avoid the news. Hedge funds and other macro traders are either already positioned or waiting until after the news hits to make decisions dependent on the result.
Knowing what we now know, where is the liquidity necessary to maintain a tight spread coming from?
Moving down the food chain to Tier 2; a bank will only provide liquidity to an ECN or retail broker if they can instantly hedge (plus their requisite spread) the positions on Interbank. If the Interbank spreads are widening due to lower liquidity, the bank is going to have to widen the spreads on the downstream players as well.
At tier 3 the ECN’s are simply passing the banks offers on, so spreads widen up to their customers. The retailers that guarantee spreads of 2 to 5 pips have just opened a gaping hole in their risk profile since they can no longer hedge their net exposure (ever wonder why they always seem to shut down or requote until its over?). The variable spread retailers in turn open up their spreads to match what is happening at the bank or they run into the same problems fixed spreads broker are dealing with.
Now think about this situation for a second. What is going to happen when a number misses expectations? How many traders going into the event with positions chose wrong and need to get out ASAP? How many hedge funds are going to instantly drop their macro orders? How many retail traders’ straddle orders just executed? How many of them were waiting to hear a miss and executed market orders?
With the technical traders on the sidelines, who is going to be stupid enough to take the other side of all these orders?
The answer is no one. Between 1 and 5 seconds after the news hits it is a purely a 1 way market. That big long pin bar that occurs is a grand total of 2 prices; the one before the news hit and the one after. The 10, 20, or 30 pips between them is called a gap.
Is it any wonder that slippage is in evidence at this time?

Conclusions:
Each tier of the Forex market has its own inherent advantages and disadvantages. Depending on your priorities you have to make a choice between what restrictions you can live with and those you cant. Unfortunately, you can’t always get what you want.
By focusing on slippage and spreads, which are the natural byproduct of order flow, one is not only pursuing a futile ideal, they are passing up an enormous opportunity to capitalize on true inefficiencies. News events are one of the few times where a large number of players are positioned inappropriately and it is fairly easy to profit from their foolishness. If a trader truly wants to make the leap to the next level of profitability they should be spending their time figuring out how identify these positions and trading with the goal of capturing the price movement they inevitably will cause.
Nobody is going to make the argument that a broker is a trader’s best friend, but they still provide a valuable service and should be compensated for their efforts. By accepting a broker for what it is and learning how to work within the limitations of the relationship, traders have access to a world of opportunity that they otherwise could never dream of capturing. Let us all remember that simple truth.
submitted by Cross_Game to Forex [link] [comments]

How my friend's new boyfriend recruited her into the cult called imarketslive

I've been noticing my friends back in my hometown are getting into financial based MLMs. One of them have gotten way too into it that she moved to a different state with her new boyfriend who's involved in imarketslive for 5-6 years.
A little bit of back story, when we were in elementary to middle school, our families were involved in a ponzi scheme. It was later resolved and sent the three head honchos to jail for 20 years each. While that was happening, her mom was involved in an MLM.
Before this new bf (let's call him Fred) showed up in her (Chelsea) life, she was in a 4 year relationship with Justin. I hung out with them quite frequently when I had vacation from university. Both were also students though different schools. They did not have the best relationship. They constantly argued especially since Justin has some anger management issues and Chelsea claims to have OCD (I think she has high anxiety at least). They would hit each other and Justin would emotionally abuse Chelsea. For example, he would go on the side of the read to threaten his own life by running into the freeway. Chelsea would feel trapped and couldn't fully express herself without Justin getting angry.
Despite this abusive relationship, they made great sacrifices to be together like commuting 1-2hrs to school to live together. They were not financially stable. Justin would spend a lot on anime stuff and Chelsea would go out a lot. Eventually, they decided to join AMWAY which we all know is not a good idea. Anyway, Chelsea always wanted to have her own business so she dropped out of uni to dedicate her time in being a waitress and a "business owner".
Finally after 4 years, she broke up with him and Amway. I thought things were going well for her and she even said she wanted to go back to school. Until... she met this new piece of shit. When I first met Fred (they only dated for a week at this point), I thought he was just a chill dude who had positive energy. Just like a good friend does, after I hung out with Chelsea and Fred I snooped into his Facebook and saw he was part of a financial MLM called imarketslive (IML). The worst part was that I saw he tagged Chelsea in a IML convention in Las Vegas. So I thought, "oh shit, she's part of ANOTHER MLM". And likewise, I told her in person the next day that she's part of a pyramid scheme. Then her response truly disturbed me.
Chelsea responded, "everything is a pyramid scheme. This what makes me happy".
🤢🤢🤢
You know I was so shocked. I just responded.. "okay, as long as you're happy. I just wanted to watch out for you".
The conversation about IML ended there. My other friends and my parents told me not to convince her that it's a bad idea because she's attached to this new guy.
This is what I observed about Fred based on his social media accounts. He is painfully positive. Like he gets preachy about positivity. He does facebook lives to tell people to achieve their dreams by getting wealthy. Because apparently, everyone's dream is just to get a lot of money. Not saying that's wrong at all (hell, I want to be rich too). He also is into those motivational speakers especially if they are involved with IML like Les Brown. He believes that forex trading/crypto exchange can help change people's lives. He tries to sell IML's overpriced apps ($200+ a month). And of course with everything fucking MLM, he uses these emojis 😜💥🤔👌🔥💯 and takes them seriously.
So why is my friend dating him? Well, she thinks that Fred is a hard working person with a stupid smile. He also recruited her and now she is an "entrepreneur" #BOSSBABE. After dating for like 4 months, they moved to Arizona to spread the fucking "message" about IML.
Now they have a large group of people they work with. They always host talks about how IML is a "family" but weirdly never about Forex trading or crypto exchange. They workout and go to church together. They do everything together which is weird. Chelsea claims she's finding herself but really she's in this cult and behaves like everyone else.
I think one of the grossest aspects about IML is how they exploit minorities and encourage them to "flex" or have a luxurious lifestyle. I saw on her snapchat about a recent convention in Dallas and most people were Hispanic, African-Americans or Southeast Asian (like her and I). Most of the higher-ups that were speaking were either those races and had some wort of branded luxury accessory like a Gucci belt. Fred has these Gucci slip-on sneakers and that's about it. It also seems like the group of people Fred and Chelsea are always with try to humble brag about how they used to be poor and now they claim to make 6 figures.
Now, Fred and Chelsea constantly post about positive quotes and financial stability advice (lmao). I don't reach out to Chelsea anymore because I do not agree with her lifestyle and I am a non-believer in IML and God. So apparently, I am a negative force. I've known her for 14 years and she became a completely different person because of this stupid cult-like MLM. She used to think things through properly, but I think after her abusive ex she thinks Fred is her light and soul.

TLDR; My friend was involved with Amway with and abusive ex and dropped out of school. Broke up and started to live her life again. Met a douche-bag 6 months later who recruited her to imarketslive which caused them to move to Arizona to recruit more people and be more into the cult-like MLM. She doesn't want to talk to me anymore because I do not agree with IML.
submitted by GothBunnyClique to antiMLM [link] [comments]

Would any experienced traders (or inexperienced) share some insight please.

Good day to all you experienced and inexperienced traders alike.. Pardon me for this extremely long post, and i thank you in advance for spending the time to read this.
Basically.. I'm really passionate about Forex, not because of getting rich. But because i just love what Forex is and the ability to be well informed and stuff. For example.. it interests me how banks work, how monetary policy affects currencies and stuff.. I love the idea of being able to predict what is going to happen to a country/currency in the coming months and i love the thought of being informed about such stuff..
I come from a country where everyday is a 9-5 office job for majority of the country, in fact, Forex seems to be non-existent here (maybe its just me), its hard to find a mentor (because i know that it is important that one must learn live trading from a mentor to see his/her perspectives), but because only a minority (if it exists) does Forex.. its extremely hard to find a mentor.. Not only that.. There are 'courses' here that charge 4000USD for a single course which im pretty sure is just basic TA and FA that can be found on Youtube.
The only thing i can teach myself is stuff that can be found online.. Mostly TA, i have spent time and time over again to practice, buying at supports, selling at resistance. Candlesticks pattern etc and never going against a trend.. I started demo trading last October and i just started live trading on January this year. In my first week, i started with a live account of 200USD and with TA alone, i made 310 USD in a week. I felt unstoppable, i felt confident and that i know Forex in and out. I figured that i could trade my lifetime relying on TA alone. The 2nd and 3rd week were all profits without a single loss, earning and earning, i grew my account from 200 to 850 in a matter of 3 weeks. Then, it went downhill.
There was a week i cant remember, where i traded USD pairs and on that week, it was a really hectic week for USD as there were alot of news revolving it. (correct me if im wrong, which i think i am, it was the week where there was Trump's testimony or something like that, and then there was Theresa May's meeting with Trump and strengthening the pound) I took quite a hit of -120 dollars in total and because i didnt keep a journal then, i started to panic. Over the next few weeks, i tried to develop new TA analysis, usage of Bollinger Bands, MACD etc.. When i had profit, i was happy and thought 'this is the analysis that i will stick to', but when i had losing trades, i went on to tweak my methods.
I think it was the ending of Feburary where i was lying on my bed and thinking, why dont i just trade like how i did on the first few weeks, since it ended in many correct trades. So i began using my method of trading in week 1-3. During that week, i had a little bit more profit than i had over the last couple of losing weeks. (my account was at 400 balance at this point in time)
However, i was confused and sceptical to trade as i was really unsure.. Everytime i look at the charts, it was already either oversold or overbought on the RSI, and on the charts, a huge trend just took place and it was nearing either support or resis. I would trade against the trend when it was nearing resis/support and i got screwed really badly.
Today, i just blew my account trading EURJPY and EURUSD sell. I entered EURJPY at 129.626 and EURUSD at 1.22624. I kept holding even when my trades were going against me because i stubbornly refused to close, believing that my analysis was right. I kept holding as i thought 'its already overbought, surely it'll retrace soon' but it didnt. Its even worst because during the first few weeks where i was confident in my trades, i wanted to do my part to be a filial son, ( i come from an average family) and i told my mom and dad that i wanted to make money for them. They invested in me 1k USD which i am close to blowing it all, its sitting at 450USD now.. all due to my ignorance.
I was disappointed, frustrated that i blew my account. It is of course naive and stupid to think thoughts like ' i should have closed earlier when my losses could have been minimized' but what if it went to profit instead?? I was stupid and ignorant and i regret it. It was today that i realize that i have to pair fundamentals with technicals, but im just berating myself because i dont know where to start learning fundamentals, or actually, Forex as a whole.. I've been using indicators, such as RSI, automated trendlines and atuomated support/resistance.. I know that plain naked chart with self drawn S/R lines are best.. but i just dont know how to do it..
I do know that i shouldn't harp on the fact that i blew my account because everyone goes through it at least once, but i cant help it, the feeling sucks.
So that brings me to the question.. Would any experienced traders out there share where they learnt Fundamentals with TA?? It will be even better if a link or a book/course could be provided alongside it. I have always wanted to learn Fundamentals but because it is so broad, i don't know where to start. The only thing i know is that high impact news on the economic calender usually affects a currency long term, like FOMC/ interest rates etc.. I just dont know where and how to start learning it... Would appreciate if i could get a little help.. Be it in recommendations of books or links/courses.
Sorry guys for this extremely lengthy post, would really appreciate it if i can get any insight at all..
Thank you guys so much..
My results on a live account the first 2 weeks, in case anyone was curious: https://imgur.com/a/f2UGw https://imgur.com/a/o2b1Z
submitted by Risingvilla to Forex [link] [comments]

Long story.. Scammed by my best friend..

Hey everyone,
This a huge story for me. It hurts me badly still and only like 2 people know the whole truth of happened to me these past few years. I didn't know this sub existed and I think getting this off my chest and let other people know might help me get perspective on what my life was and still is today. This is a throwaway account because people in my life browse Reddit.
My ex best friend
Let's name him John. I met John initially in high school. We had multiple class together. We played on the same sports team (yes I'm being purposely vague). We went to nightclubs in a lot our 20's. We studied both studied finance in different universities. We just had a lot in common. I had full trust in him since we were best friends from more than 10+ years. I am naturally someone who loves to help others so I was always there for him if he needed something. He wasn't as much and I didn't care and thought about it really at that time. Keep that in mind.
How do I know all these things you may ask yourself while reading my story.. I was a close friend at the time and I was the computer geek so I installed every computer he had, created every business domain he held and I was an administrator on those accounts. John was not knowledgeable at one particular thing and that was I.T.
The story
1ST PART:
I know it sounds stupid but we made a promise to each other when we were teenagers that we would be millionaires by age 25. We didn't know why, what, how... we could achieve such goal but we kept this idea in our heads all the time. People were mocking us and called us delusional but we didn't care.
One day.. John calls me up and tells me he is working on a big big project that could lend us the millions of dollars we promised to each other. An uncle from a mutual friend (let's call him Uncle Denis) spoke about an investment opportunity in a gold mine in 2012. John had to find 500 000$ for him to be able to be part of this project. John always had a thing to convince people and make them feel like he is the more trust worthy guy in the world. He ask me if I was interested but I had no money. He then told me that if someone I know could be interested in such a project. I call up close friends and some family members and some of them bites the bullet and invest directly through John. (Why everything had to go either through him personally or through his personal company..?)
Right here is where all my bad decisions started pilling up.
John wanted to be in the center all of this success that was about to happen. He found the 500 000$, made a ''private placement'' in this mining company that was listed on the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange). People caught wind of what he was doing and gave him money to invest in this project. He told that this mining company was about to get bought out and we would make a lot of money. His lifestyle started to change before anything happened. Bought new clothes, bought a Mercedes Benz, new watch... you get the picture. For us, we thought that this meant, his success.. our success. The only thing is, it was only true THIS TIME. We were got all fooled later on because of this successful project. Keep in mind, he was using money to do expensive things that he couldn't afford before banking on this project.
So nobody cared because everybody made some money... including me!
One day, we all get the news. The mining company gets bought. He becomes Mr. credible + as well as Mr trustworthy! He makes 1.5 million dollar approx.
2ND PART :
John begins to pay back the money and profit to everyone but starts telling people that they could invest some of it back into his new trading platform. John had no prior knowledge on how to trade (and especially how to trade enormous accounts). Nobody knew that of course. They all just thought he was a finance expert since the mining project. He started trading forex (currencies trading).
One night he calls me like very very late to tell me he lost a lot of money. I ask him how much!? He says over 600 000$. I am utterly shocked and have no words for what just happened. He tells that he will come up with a plan and make it all back.. For a few months, he kept trading forex until he admitted he couldn't make considerable profits to repay people their money. Everyone was in the dark at that moment.
Something changed in him during that time. The feeling of losing money, to not being honest, spending the money he didn't have turned him into someone else.
John finally made an appointment to everyone who had money invested in his company to tell them the truth. (but probably not the whole truth). There was no money left and that's it. He gave people a choice which was the first step of a smart way to get out of this whole he dug himself into.
He offered a new investment opportunity. A way for everyone to get back the money he lost. So what could it be? A new mining project (just like the first time around). But what was the catch?
You had to sign a debt acknowledgment contract first. After, you had a share purchase agreement to transform his debt into shares of a new company he just opened. And just like that, he almost got rid of every debt he held to investors. Some people didn't want to initially but you know John.. he convinced everyone after a while.
3RD PART :
John moves in a new luxury condo, gets a 2nd Mercedes Benz and starts going out a lot more during that time. He continues to promote this new mining project and new people start investing. This project is trying to do almost the same thing as the first one.. but this time around Uncle Denis and him were the supposed owners of the mining titles. Not someone else. They had full control over this project. I learnt that Denis has no clue about John old debts to investor and where the money was coming from. John made everyone make cheques to him personally or to his company.. not directly in the company who holds the mining rights.
John always needed more money to keep thing afloat and to help the mining project move forward. People kept investing in him. He all told us that many buyers were interested and he was working to get the best deal possible. Let's not forget also that during that time he kept going to nightclub spending over 10 000$ a night sometimes. Again, we all thought like the first time around, his success is our success.
Now let's jump a few months in the future.
John blames that Uncle Denis is the reason no deal was made. He know this as we all receive an email from John stating that. Also stating that he did everything possible to make it work but the mining project is DEAD. He sends us all financial statements of his company in an excel sheet (WHAT A JOKE).
A close friend and myself starts calling up mining companies that were close to John project to know if they would be interested in such mining titles. We found 2 that were interested. We let John know to put them in touch but John refuses to deal. We find this very strange but we can do nothing about it.
We decide to call John to know what is happening with the project. His tone suddenly changed.. he became very with us. He told us that the project was basically dead. There is no money left. He then says that if we get into his work email again, we are dead. We asked what about Uncle Denis... and he says if he tries something, hes dead too. The conversation finishes like this to our disbelief.
We all receive an official email (all the investors) coming from John that says the project is no more. He states that he tried everything to make it happen but couldn't as he says that Uncle Denis was the one stopping the progress and wouldn't sign the buyout papers. I for a fact know that is bullshit... here's why
THE EMAILS:
I saw some unbelievable stuff in that work email. I saw excel spreadsheets of the company filled with only restaurant bills (4 months = 14000$ spent). I saw emails with lawyers saying that he owed them over 50K for all the share purchase agreement and other stuff he made us sign. but he transferred this bill to Uncle Denis (which he wasn't a part of). I saw an attached file of a paper he wrote himself which he states that he wants us to be transferred to another company to disempower himself from all the investors... and then another paper where he puts up 3 new companies which are now held by private off-shore companies (in Panama) that would be the new title holders of the project. John got in touch with the mine titles owners and he is starting the project all over again but without all the investors.
THE AFTERMATH
We filed a complaint against him to our local police station.. but they told us they couldn't do anything. We went to the AMF and spoke to a detective several times. We told her our story and brought all our evidence against him. This investigation is still on-going. John tried to sue me in small claims court over money he owed me... (what a douche) I won the case. Then I learned a month later that he filed for bankruptcy 4-5 months prior to trial. In his bankruptcy papers, there is a false address, false claims about his past & future spending and projects. John didn't include the 2 companies where the investors shares were (and money).
MYSELF
All this experience had a very negative impact on me. I was such a positive and stress free person.. and now I struggle so much with anxiety. I'm afraid of everything. I thought many time of suicide but couldn't go through with it. I lost friends that I knew since high school because of this. I lost so much money... money from my own family, close friends and myself. I live paycheck to paycheck to paycheck and have so much debt... I wish I just could go back and never met the guy.
Thank you for reading... if the made it through it. I left out some back story as I didn't want to build more of this wall of text.
I don't know if I feel better by sharing my experience... but its something I guess
If I would give any advice.. that would be : never mix friendship, family and money. If it goes bad, the price to pay is too high for the reward it might bring.
Thank you all.
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